Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1150 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2019

Valid Jul 14/1200 UTC thru Jul 18/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation Including Preference and Forecast Confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
...Tropical Storm Barry...
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Preference: General Model Blend (CONUS)
            See latest NHC advisory (T.S. Barry)
Confidence: Slightly above average (CONUS)

The primary weather feature for the CONUS in the short term
forecast period is the eventual track of Tropical Storm Barry,
which is currently centered over west-central Louisiana per latest
NHC advisory. The system will continue moving north then
eventually northeastward into the mid-MS River Valley. The 15Z NHC
forecast track of Barry is closest aligned to a multi-model
consensus with a heavier focus on the ECMWF/GFS in the near term
followed a general model blend (except the 00Z CMC which was
considered an outlier) for Day 3.

Elsewhere, there is fairly good agreement with the northern stream
energy for the short range period with a couple shortwaves
expected to move through the flow. Models are showing their
typical, although minor, biases with the GFS being a tad too fast
with one moving across the Upper Midwest Monday and Pacific
Northwest on Tuesday night into Wednesday. By mid-week, the
remnants of Barry become absorbed into the prevailing westerly
flow and moves into the mid-Atlantic region. There is relatively
good agreement on this progression with the latest model guidance
such that a general model blend would suffice.


Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Taylor