Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
222 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019

Valid Jul 15/0000 UTC thru Jul 18/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation Including Preference and Forecast Confidence
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
...Tropical Storm Barry...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Preference: General Model Blend (CONUS)
            Blend of 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF (T.D. Barry)
Confidence: Slightly above average (CONUS)
            Average (T.D. Barry)

The primary weather feature for the CONUS in the short term
forecast period is the evolution of T.D. Barry, which is currently
moving north into southern AR. The system will continue moving
north through Monday and then will recurve northeastward across
the mid-MS Valley through Tuesday and into portions of the OH
Valley and lower Great Lakes on Wednesday. The model preference
will be toward the better clustering of the 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF
solutions. The 00Z UKMET again appears to be a tad too strong. The
00Z CMC for its part appears much too weak.

Elsewhere, there is fairly good agreement with the northern stream
energy for the short range period with a couple shortwaves
expected to move through the flow. Models are showing their
typical, although minor, biases with the GFS being a tad too fast
with one moving across the Upper Midwest Monday and Pacific
Northwest on Tuesday night into Wednesday. By mid-week, the
remnants of Barry become absorbed into the prevailing westerly
flow and moves toward the northern Mid-Atlantic region. Will
prefer a general model blend across the CONUS outside of the
evolution of Barry.


Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Orrison