Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
232 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Valid Jul 16/0000 UTC thru Jul 19/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation Including Preference and Forecast Confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
...Post-Tropical Cyclone Barry...
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Preference: Blend of the 00Z GFS/ECMWF
Confidence: Slightly above average

The focus in the short term period will be on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Barry which is now lifting up across southern MO.
Gradually Barry will recurve northeast and east across the Ohio
Valley and become absorbed into the westerlies and cross through
portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic region by Thursday. The
consensus of the latest model guidance for the track of Barry
favors the 00Z GFS/ECMWF solutions. The 00Z NAM overall appears
too weak and too fast, but the 00Z UKMET which previously had been
a strong outlier has now trended weaker and much closer into the
GFS/ECMWF cluster.

Elsewhere across the CONUS, typical summertime pattern developing
toward Day 3 as heights rise across the country with building
ridging over the southern US. Northern stream energy will stay
confined to the northern tier of the US and southern Canada. A
closed low and shortwave energy will approach the Pacific
Northwest by later in the week and overall there is reasonably
good agreement between the GFS/ECMWF with placement and strength.
The 00Z CMC trended toward the GFS/ECMWF cluster and is a bit
stronger whereas the 00Z UKMET is still a bit slower than the rest
of the guidance. So here a blend of the 00Z GFS/ECMWF solutions
will be preferred and this is supported by the 00Z GEFS mean as
well.


Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Orrison/Taylor