Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1229 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Valid Jul 17/0000 UTC thru Jul 20/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation Including Preference and Forecast Confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
...Post-Tropical Cyclone Barry...
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Preference: Blend of the 00Z GFS/12Z UKMET/12Z ECMWF (Northwest)
            General model blend (elsewhere across the CONUS)
Confidence: Below average (Northwest)
            Above average (elsewhere across the CONUS)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Barry will advance quickly east across the
OH Valley and the northern Mid-Atlantic region through Thursday
and then offshore by Friday. Model spread is modest and Barry will
continue to weaken and merge in with a frontal zone.

Going toward the end of the week and especially this weekend,
building mid-level heights are expected across much of the CONUS
with ridging extending from the Northeast back into the Southwest
states. There are some notable differences in how the models
handle troughing over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies
by Saturday. The 12Z CMC is fastest with the energy and is most
out of phase with the remaining guidance. The 00Z GFS and 12Z
ECMWF are the slowest. The 00Z NAM and 12Z UKMET split the
difference in between camps. The 18Z GEFS mean actually tends to
favor a solution somewhat closer to the UKMET versus the
operational GFS , but the 12Z ECENS mean is very close to the
operational ECMWF. Overall, the CMC and to a lesser extent the NAM
are outlier solutions over the Northwest, so to accommodate the
spread, a blend of the GFS, UKMET and ECMWF will be preferred over
thee Northwest, with a general model blend elsewhere over the
CONUS.

Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Orrison