Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
104 AM EDT Sun Jul 28 2019

Valid Jul 28/0000 UTC thru Jul 31/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z NAM/GFS Evaluation with Preliminary Preferences/Confidence
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...Overview of CONUS features...
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Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Slightly above average

A strong mid-level ridge will remain across the Southwest through
Wednesday but its center will slowly shift east from AZ into NM.
The northern stream westerlies will focus from the Pacific
Northwest to the Northeast while a portion of the flow breaks off
and carves southeastward to help the persistence and development
of a sharp but weak upper trough across the central/eastern Gulf
Coast, eventually developing a closed low in the central Gulf.

The only area of notable disagreement with the evolution of
features across the CONUS was with the 00Z GFS, mainly early in
the period given it had a weaker surface low tracking from SD into
central MN today. The GFS has consistently differed with this
feature and while the differences track into Canada for Monday,
they are generally resolved by Tuesday and have little impact for
the lower 48 after Sunday. Therefore, given no other large scale
mass field differences, a general model blend is recommended
across the CONUS through the end of the short range period
(Wednesday morning).

Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Otto