Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1208 PM EDT Mon Aug 05 2019

Valid Aug 05/1200 UTC thru Aug 09/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation with Preferences and Confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Above average

Relatively persistent synoptic pattern across the CONUS through
the next 3 days, featuring a ridge over the southwestern US and
downstream troughing over the Great Lakes and eastern US. A closed
mid/upper low will be positioned off the Pacific Northwest coast
which will gradually move onshore toward the end of the forecast
period. The most active/sensible weather will be found across the
central/northern plains where multiple rounds of thunderstorms are
likely to track through.

Overall, model agreement is above average through the next 3 days,
with little variability seen in the latest forecast guidance. 500
mb heights show little model spread with similar solutions offered
at the surface. As such, a general model blend is favored as this
time.


Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Taylor