Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1243 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2019

Valid Aug 29/1200 UTC thru Sep 02/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation including the NAM/GFS and preliminary
preferences
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preliminary Preference: GFS/00Z ECMWF/CMC blend
Confidence: Average

Models handle a cold front forecast to cross the north central
U.S. tonight and the Northeast on Friday similarly, with consensus
that the trailing end of the front should stall from the Central
Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley Fri-Sat as the upper
shortwave moves east. Meanwhile, Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin is
forecast to quickly move into the Canadian Maritimes tonight.
Across the Pacific Northwest, the NAM was faster than the model
consensus to bring a shortwave inland Sat night-Sun. The GFS along
with the 00Z ECMWF/CMC solutions best represented the current
consensus for each of these systems, and a blend of these
solutions is preferred at this time.


...Hurricane Dorian...
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Please refer to the official National Hurricane Center forecast
track

The 12Z GFS was the closest deterministic solution to the official
NHC forecast track through Sunday. The NAM was to the left of the
official forecast track. The 00Z ECMWF was also slightly to the
left of the NHC forecast track by 12Z on Sunday.


Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Ryan