Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
243 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2019

Valid Aug 29/1200 UTC thru Sep 02/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation and final preferences
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: GFS/ECMWF blend
Confidence: Average

Models handle a cold front forecast to cross the north central
U.S. tonight and the Northeast on Friday similarly, with consensus
that the trailing end of the front should stall from the Central
Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley Fri-Sat as the upper
shortwave moves east. Meanwhile, Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin is
forecast to quickly move into the Canadian Maritimes tonight.
Across the Pacific Northwest, the NAM along with the CMC were
faster than the model consensus to bring a shortwave inland Sat
night-Sun. The GFS and ECMWF solutions best represented the
current consensus for each of these systems, and a blend of these
solutions is preferred at this time.


...Hurricane Dorian...
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Please refer to the official National Hurricane Center forecast
track

The 12Z GFS was the closest deterministic solution to the official
NHC forecast track through Sunday. The NAM was to the left of the
official forecast track. The 12Z UKMET is now on the fast side of
the spread, while the 12Z ECMWF brings up the slow side.


Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Ryan