Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
100 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

Valid Sep 02/0000 UTC thru Sep 05/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Preliminary Model Evaluation, Confidence, and Preferences
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: Non-NAM blend
Confidence: Average

The models are in good agreement that the longwave synoptic
pattern will maintain a ridge in the west and a trough in the
east. There is little variation in the guidance, and the features
determining the preferred blend are generally smaller scale. The
NAM deepens the eastern trough a little too much when compared to
the global consensus. and is also much flatter with heights across
the NW. Otherwise, the 00Z GFS and 12Z Non-NCEP suite are well
clustered despite small temporal differences in a shortwave moving
eastward from the PacNW into the northern tier. Despite these
differences, QPF fields are well aligned so a blend which includes
all of the global suite except the NAM is reasonable.


...Hurricane Dorian...
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Please refer to the official National Hurricane Center forecast
track

The 00Z GFS is strongly collocated with the 03Z NHC advisory
track, and a heavy weight of this model at least into day 3
produces the most integrity to the NHC track for Dorian. The UKMET
and ECMWF are also reasonable, becoming moreso later in the
forecast period as the GFS becomes on the western edge of the
envelope and the NHC track becomes right of the GFS.

Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Weiss