Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1238 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Valid Sep 17/1200 UTC thru Sep 21/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation with Preferences and Forecast Confidence
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...Overall Pattern across the CONUS...
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Preference: Model blend weighted toward ensemble means
            ECMWF Ensemble and GEFS Ensemble greatest weight
Confidence: Average

The synoptic pattern will be dominated by a western U.S. trough
and an eastern U.S. ridge over the next few days, which will
amplify by mid-week. The deterministic model heights aloft are
within the envelope of ensemble spread and a blend is generally
preferred. There are differences in the amplitude of the wave
pattern over the CONUS, and some slight positional differences
(the GFS and NAM advance the trough further east). The model
preference and blends will be anchored by greater weight placed on
the ensemble means, specifically the ECMWF ensemble and GEFS
ensemble. These were also used to trend the timing of the rainfall
associated with the tropical disturbance in Texas.


Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Lamers