Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1236 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Valid Sep 18/0000 UTC thru Sep 21/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation with Preferences and Forecast Confidence
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...Overall Pattern across the CONUS...
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Preference: Model blend weighted toward ensemble means
            ECMWF Ensemble and GEFS Ensemble greatest weight
Confidence: Average

Through the next 3 days, the synoptic pattern is expected to
feature troughing over the western U.S. with a persistent ridge
anchored over the southeast U.S. By the end of Day 3, the trough
axis moves into the central and northern Plains. The deterministic
model heights at 500 mb are tightly clustered and well within the
ensemble means. The model preference and blends will be anchored
by greater weight placed on the ensemble means, specifically the
ECMWF ensemble and GEFS ensemble. These were also used to trend
the timing of the rainfall associated with Tropical Depression
Imelda in Texas.


Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Taylor