Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
244 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Valid Sep 19/0000 UTC thru Sep 22/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation with Preferences and Forecast Confidence
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...Overall Pattern across the CONUS...
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Preference: General model blend increasingly weighted toward
            ECMWF Ensemble and GEFS Ensemble means
Confidence: Average

The synoptic pattern will continue to be dominated by a western
U.S. trough and an eastern U.S. ridge. In general, the models are
in good agreement over the first couple days of the forecast, with
increasing differences by Friday Night and Saturday related to how
the trough ejects east into the Plains. The 00Z ECMWF in
particular shows this trough lagging the model consensus, but the
00Z GFS has trended toward a slower solution as well and
especially by the end of the period. By Sunday, there will be
another trough coming into the West, but there is better model
agreement with the details of this system. Regarding T.D. Imelda
over southeast TX, the guidance has strong agreement in lifting
this system northwest over the next 24 to 36 hours, with the
system weakening into an open trough by Friday. Moisture and
energy associated with this system will advance up toward the Red
River Valley of the South this weekend.

Based on the latest model clustering, a general model blend will
again be preferred with weighting toward the latest GEFS and ECENS
means, and this will also account for some of the timing spread
seen with the troughing over the Plains Friday and Saturday.


Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Orrison