Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1247 PM EDT Tue Oct 01 2019

Valid Oct 01/1200 UTC thru Oct 05/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation with Preferences and Forecast Confidence
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Preference: General Model Blend
Confidence: Average

Highly amplified mid to upper level pattern across the CONUS to
start the forecast period, characterized by deep troughing across
the interior West and ridging across the southeast U.S., will
gradually become more zonal by the end of Day 3. Through Day 1 and
much of Day 2, the forecast guidance is in excellent agreement
such that a general model blend can be applied.

Differences in the model guidance develop by Day 3 with respect to
a closed low dropping from the Gulf of Alaska southward into the
Pacific Northwest. The GFS is a bit flatter as the wave moves
onshore the Pacific Northwest, while the CMC is a touch faster
than the rest of the global deterministic models. The ECMWF is
more amplified similar to the CMC, but slower compared to the rest
of the models. Though overall the differences are not too
significant to exclude any one solution or model over the other at
this time, so a general model blend is preferred at this time. 


Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Taylor