Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1236 PM EDT Thu Oct 03 2019

Valid Oct 03/1200 UTC thru Oct 07/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation with Preferences and Forecast Confidence
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Above average

Troughing that is expected to develop over the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest on Day 2/3 is where the most model spread exists.
Otherwise, agreement across the CONUS through Day 48 hours is very
good with little spread seen in the past several model runs.
Troughing over the west and ridging over the southeast US will
transition to troughing over the central US and Great Lakes
regions by Day 3.

This trough will take on a negative tilt as it approaches the
northern Plains and will induce a surface low to track from the
lee of the Rockies through the Upper Midwest by this weekend. The
ECMWF is a bit stronger compared to the other guidance, but the
timing/placement spread with both the shortwave trough
axis/position and the low track is not considerably high. With the
good agreement through Day 3, a general model blend is preferred
across the CONUS at this time.


Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Taylor