Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1237 AM EDT Fri Oct 04 2019

Valid Oct 04/0000 UTC thru Oct 07/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation with Preferences and Forecast Confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: General model blend
 Exception: Non-UKMET after 72hrs.
Confidence: Above average

Large scale pattern continues to be very agreeable with
placement/strength and timing of the main features.  The exiting
shortwave and developing New England surface wave is very strong,
as well as the larger fuller latitude trof entering the West Coast
currently.  This trof will spur surface cyclone in the WY Rockies
later today and shift northeast with fast moving cold front across
the Plains into the Ohio Valley/Mid-MS valley by late Sun.  There
are small internal differences, such as the NAM a bit further
north and the ECMWF a bit slower/south with the surface wave (even
compared to the ECENS mean), but this is fairly minor to have
above average confidence in a general model blend.   This is even
stronger given the slowing of the GFS with respect to the front in
the OH/TN valley.

The only significant spread occurs with the timing of the upstream
kicker shortwave/approaching/digging jet.  The UKMET is very flat
and well north, this is opposed by the ECMWF/CMC and GFS which are
deeper, while the sensible weather is not particularly high for
this feature, a non-UKMET blend is preferred after 72hrs.


Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Gallina