Model Diagnostic Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 222 AM EDT Fri Oct 04 2019 Valid Oct 04/0000 UTC thru Oct 07/1200 UTC ...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air ingest... 00Z Model Evaluation with Preferences and Forecast Confidence ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: General model blend Confidence: Above average 07z update: The 00z UKMET trended toward digging the kicker wave, much like the remaining guidance. While it remains a bit fast aloft with the trof axis and jet streak, it is not progressing the frontal zone/QPF swath further east and is quite comparable to the other guidance. The 00z ECMWF trended a bit further north with the surface wave lifting out of the Dakotas by late Sat, matching the 12z ECENS mean as well as the UKMET/CMC. Overall a general model blend continues to look good as preference at high confidence here, as well as, across the remainder of the CONUS as well. ---Prior Discussion--- Large scale pattern continues to be very agreeable with placement/strength and timing of the main features. The exiting shortwave and developing New England surface wave is very strong, as well as the larger fuller latitude trof entering the West Coast currently. This trof will spur surface cyclone in the WY Rockies later today and shift northeast with fast moving cold front across the Plains into the Ohio Valley/Mid-MS valley by late Sun. There are small internal differences, such as the NAM a bit further north and the ECMWF a bit slower/south with the surface wave (even compared to the ECENS mean), but this is fairly minor to have above average confidence in a general model blend. This is even stronger given the slowing of the GFS with respect to the front in the OH/TN valley. The only significant spread occurs with the timing of the upstream kicker shortwave/approaching/digging jet. The UKMET is very flat and well north, this is opposed by the ECMWF/CMC and GFS which are deeper, while the sensible weather is not particularly high for this feature, a non-UKMET blend is preferred after 72hrs. Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html 500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml Gallina