Model Diagnostic Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 654 PM EDT Fri Nov 01 2019 Valid Nov 01/1200 UTC thru Nov 05/0000 UTC ...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air ingest... 12Z Final Model Evaluation with Preferences and Confidence ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ CONUS through 84hrs (05/00Z) ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: 12Z GFS/UKMET/12Z ECMWF Confidence: Above average 19Z update... Little change from 12Z ECMWF/CMC with the preference remaining with the GFS/ECMWF/UKMET. Minor shortwave differences on Day 3 continue to result in some precipitation coverage across the Great Lakes as can be expected with small scale features. Previous Discussion... An eastern Pacific ridge extends into Alaska and a sprawling trough persists over much of the CONUS through at least Monday night. Two main shortwave troughs track through the mean trough and across the central CONUS in the short term. The first trough currently over the northern Great Plains shifts east to New England through Saturday night and the second descends into MN Sunday night and reaches the Great Lakes Monday. Precipitation is limited to the northern Plains and Great Lakes and southern FL where a front remains stalled. There is excellent global model agreement on the first trough into Sunday and only minor differences exist with the second trough. Specifically, the 12Z NAM is more amplified with the trough with resulting Day 3 precip farther south across the Midwest than the consensus. The 00Z CMC is the slowest solution which focuses precip farther west than the consensus. The 00Z UKMET had brought an impulse off the trough/low over the northern Baja Peninsula and across west Texas on Day 2, resulting in some notable precip north of the Big Bend. However, the 12Z UKMET has notably backed off this solution. Therefore, the excellent agreement among the 12Z GFS/UKMET and 00Z ECMWF warrants an above normal confidence in that consensus solution. Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html 500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml Jackson