Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
123 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2019

Valid Nov 04/0000 UTC thru Nov 07/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

...00Z Model Evaluation with Preferences and Confidence...
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS through 07.12z
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Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Slightly above average

07z update: In the area of largest spread, in the Southwest, the
00z ECMWF further accelerated continuing to shear the remaining
low across the Southern Plains about 12hrs faster than the other
guidance.  Yet, this did not seem to present much of a difference
in the lower levels of the mass fields, though further splits the
timing of convective activity (earlier) across OK into the Ozarks
at the end of Day 3; however, the axis is the same (given the
similar frontal zone orientation parallel to the shearing
shortwave. The UKMET/CMC remain slightly faster than the slow,
GFS/NAM but are in the ball park of the median of the 12z ECENS
members. As such will continue with a general model blend in the
mass fields at slightly above average confidence. 

---Prior Discussion---
Models continue to exhibit strong agreement on the synoptic
pattern with most deterministic models well within the envelope of
the ensemble spread.  The broad global scale trof centered on S
Hudson/James Bay dominates from the Northern and Central Rockies
to the East Coast, with embedded shorter-length shortwave features
moving through the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes through
the early part of the week. An elongated closed low in the
California Bight, southeast of the dominant Northeast Pacific
Ridge.  This pattern continues throughout the forecast period with
only the western ridge dampening by Tues, allowing energy to draw
the closed low into the Southwest late Wed into Thurs.

The northern stream while having stubble depth/timing differences
are in very strong agreement.  The Southwest and shearing out
closed low into the Southern Plains is the only difference in
timing, as the 00z NAM/GFS both uncharacteristically, being slow
to lift northeast.  The impact to surface trof and moisture/QPF
across the Southern Plains is fairly small overall given a good
agreement on the return moisture magnitude/timing out of the Gulf
in the lowest levels, while the mid-level moisture stream out of
the subtropical Pacific is not affected by the shearing out trof
(given parallel flow to shearing environment.   As such, a general
model blend can be employed with slightly above average confidence
throughout the forecast period across the CONUS. 

Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Gallina