Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1145 AM EST Tue Nov 05 2019

Valid Nov 05/1200 UTC thru Nov 09/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

...12Z Model Evaluation with Preferences and Confidence...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS through 09.00Z
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Preference: General model blend through 08/00Z
            Blend of 05/00Z GEFS/ECMWF/ECENS mean and 05/12Z NAM
thereafter
Confidence: Above average thru 08/00Z
            Below average thereafter

The 05/12Z suite of NCEP guidance largely maintained continuity
with their previous runs, leaving their relative position close to
the 05/00Z and 05/06Z non-NCEP operational and ensemble means.  In
particular, the 05/12Z GFS remained a fast outlier in the
Northeast U.S. by the end of the day 3 period. 

The 05/00Z ECMWF had trended slower with the shortwave emerging
from the Southwest, pressing the frontal zone southeastward;
allowing for the northern stream to trend faster, and increase
phasing similarly to the GFS.  As such the developing coastal low
is much further north though still not as far northeast as the
GFS.  The UKMET remained outside the realm of the ensemble suite
with the 05/00Z CMC on the northern side of the guidance.  As a
result, the uncertainty remained.  Given all the guidance has been
varying from run to run, and the better verifying guidance is
starting to agree further north, will adjust and support a change
toward a 05/00Z GEFS/ECWMF blend with some 05/12Z NAM and the
overnight EC ensemble means to handle some of the other
uncertainty. 

Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Bann