Model Diagnostic Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 143 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2019 Valid Nov 06/0000 UTC thru Nov 09/1200 UTC ...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air ingest... ...00Z Model Evaluation with Preferences and Confidence... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS through 09.12Z ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: General model blend Exception: Northeast after 08/00z - GFS/ECMWF blend Central US/Canada border Sat - Non-UKMET blend Confidence: Above average except Northeast (slightly above average) 07z update: The trend toward a general consensus is getting better, though the ECMWF, like the GFS before it, has trended faster and east. The UKMET/CMC both show solid evolution agreement with the GFS/ECMWF particularly in the mid to upper level mass fields, though both are a bit further north and east with the surface wave reducing affects across New England relative to the initial preference. Elsewhere, there is solid agreement, with exception to the clipper low sliding along the central US/Canada border late Fri into Sat where the UKMET lags a bit too much to suggest its elimination from the blend. All considered, a general model blend can be supported throughout CONUS with the exception of the Northeast, where a GFS/ECMWF blend is supported at increased confidence (slightly above average) and a Non-UKMET blend in the northern tier Sat. ---Prior Discussion--- Arctic shortwave and closed low shearing out of the Southwest will phase across the Ohio Valley and further amplify across the eastern Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic supporting surface cyclogenesis. Recent trends continue from last evening with slightly faster and therefore a bit more elongated north-south evolution of the wave compared to a deeper more compact cyclone Fri...becoming so further east on Sat into Maritime Canada. The UKMET and MCC are both well displaced and more positive tilt with/after the phasing process, this is not favored and both are along the outer edge of a moderate ensemble spread. The 00z NAM, is once again slightly faster, but much stronger too compared to the 18z GEFS and 00z GFS, this leads to the cyclone developing further north as well and away from the best clustering and continuity so is also not favored across the Northeast. This leaves the 12z ECMWF, which is a bit more amplified due to a slightly slower southern stream and a slightly faster northern stream 00z GFS, that is along the eastern third of GEFS members. As such preference will be in a ECWMF/GFS blend (slightly more weight to the ECMWF). Given proximity to the ECENS/GEFS suite, confidence is increasing to average after 08/00z. Note: Guidance with the convection/frontal zone across the Southern Plains into the MS valley (as well as Coastal TX development late Thurs into Friday) is solidly supported by the NAM as well as the GFS/ECWMF to have some inclusion there. Also, the next Clipper shortwave moving out of Canada into the Great Lakes by the end of the forecast period is also supported by a NAM/GFS/ECWMF blend at above average confidence. Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml 500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml Gallina