Model Diagnostic Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1138 AM EST Sun Nov 10 2019 Valid Nov 10/1200 UTC thru Nov 14/0000 UTC ..See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air ingest... ...12Z Model Evaluation with Preferences and Confidence... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ...Amplifying mid-level trough axis into the north-central U.S. for Monday... ...Surface low in the vicinity of New England Tuesday morning... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: non 00Z UKMET blend Confidence: Average In the last 24 hours, model agreement has improved with the shortwave trough axis swinging through the Great Lakes and Northeast U.S. through Tuesday and with the surface low development and track across New England. The consensus is for low pressure to develop across the central Appalachians and then toward southern New England by 12Z Tuesday and then enter the Gulf of Maine toward 00Z Wednesday. Spread between the deterministic models is low and overall a general model blend can be used for the mass fields with this system. ...Cold front nearing the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: 00Z ECENS/12Z GFS blend Confidence: Slightly above average Ridging currently anchored over the western U.S. at the start of the forecast period will break down as a shortwave trough and associated cold front enter the Pacific Northwest Tuesday. Through 48 hours (12.12Z), there is above average agreement with the latest deterministic guidance. Beyond that, the 00Z ECMWF continues to be a bit deeper/amplified with its trough. The 00Z ECENS mean would be a good compromise to the more amplified ECMWF and also agrees well with the latest GFS. The NAM/CMC offer some utility as well while the UKMET seems to be too slow compared to the rest of the guidance. The preference for now will be a non-UKMET blend, with heavier weights toward the ECENS/GFS. ...Closed low over northwestern Mexico... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: non 00Z UKMET blend Confidence: Average The 00Z UKMET continues to be the faster outlier regarding the 500 mb low track across Mexico during the next few days. The 12Z GFS/NAM offer similar solutions to the 00Z ECMWF/CMC, so with this in mind, a non-00Z UKMET blend is preferred. Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml 500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml Taylor