Model Diagnostic Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1142 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2019 Valid Nov 11/0000 UTC thru Nov 14/1200 UTC ..See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air ingest... ...00Z NAM/GFS Evaluation with Preliminary Preferences and Confidence... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ...Amplifying mid-level trough into the north-central U.S./Great Lakes today/tonight... ...Surface low in the vicinity of New England Tuesday morning... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: non 12Z UKMET blend Confidence: Average While the models are generally very good agreement with this system, the 12Z UKMET's 500 mb trough is slightly more progressive than the remaining deterministic/ensemble consensus during the day on Tuesday. ...Cold front nearing the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday and accompanying shortwave into the Great Plains on Wednesday... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: General model blend Confidence: Slightly above average The latest deterministic models are in fairly good agreement with a cold front into the Pacific Northwest and the corresponding shortwave downstream into the Great Plains on Wednesday. While some minor timing differences regarding the mid-level shortwave show up by Thursday morning with the 00Z GFS fastest, the differences are small enough though that time to support a general model blend. ...Closed low currently over the Baja Peninsula... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: 00Z GFS, 12Z ECMWF and 12Z CMC blend Confidence: Average While a subtle trend to be faster has been noted in the ensembles Thursday morning, the 12Z UKMET remains faster than a majority of the latest models. The 00Z NAM was slightly slower with the 00Z GFS, 12Z ECMWF and 12Z CMC fitting nicely in the middle with agreement from the ensemble means. ...Weakening shortwave trough approaching California mid-week... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF blend Confidence: Slightly below average Timing differences with this shortwave are prevalent in the ensemble members. For now, a middle of the road compromise is recommended which is a blend of the 12Z ECMWF and 00Z GFS. Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml 500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml Otto