Model Diagnostic Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 155 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2019 Valid Nov 14/0000 UTC thru Nov 17/1200 UTC ..See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air ingest... 00Z Model Evaluation with Preferences and Confidence ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: Blend of 00Z ECMWF, EC ENS, GEFS, GFS Confidence: Average ---06Z UPDATE--- No change to the preliminary preference. The 00Z GEFS did trend closer to the 00Z GFS, so greater weight will be placed on the ECMWF and ECMWF Ensemble toward the end of the forecast period. ---PREVIOUS DISCUSSION--- Models are showing some variability with the amplitude and timing of two significant waves in the southern stream by this weekend. The first will result from a phasing of a currently ejecting upper level low over northern Mexico and a digging shortwave over the Plains, with cyclogenesis expected off the Southeast coast this weekend. The second will be a trailing wave digging through the Rockies on Saturday and the Plains on Sunday. The ECMWF, GFS, and their ensembles offered reasonable consistency on the 12Z model cycle. The 00Z GFS has deamplified the waves slightly and sped them up relative to the 12Z run, leading to greater inconsistency with the aforementioned ensemble means (particularly with the trailing wave). The model preference is to lean toward the ensemble means, supported more by the 12Z ECMWF. The 00Z GFS is incorporated into the preference earlier in the period, with less weight after 16.06Z (Friday Night). While the 00Z GFS could represent a new model trend, it has less ensemble support at the moment. Otherwise, there is reasonably good agreement on the synoptic pattern elsewhere and/or limited forecast precipitation. Therefore, the model preference should be satisfactory for the remainder of the country as well. Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml 500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml Lamers