Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1132 AM EST Sun Nov 17 2019
Valid Nov 17/1200 UTC thru Nov 21/0000 UTC
...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...
12Z Model Evaluation with Preferences and Forecast Confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: Non-UKMET blend
Confidence: Average
The major synoptic features of note in the next 3 days will be the
troughing over the Great Lakes and Northeast U.S. and its
associated area of low pressure moving off the coast. A closed low
off Baja will become absorbed with a digging shortwave along the
western U.S. and move across the Southwest U.S. mid to late week.
The northern Rockies and northern Plains will see another
shortwave trough late on Day 3.
Overall, model agreement is average with these systems. For the
Northeast U.S., the UKMET remains the western outlier and is
largely discounted as there is now very good clustering with the
rest of the deterministic and ensemble guidance. The UKMET also is
over amplifying the trough over the Great Lakes / Mid Atlantic
mid-week.
Out west, there is better agreement with the overall strength of
the systems. The UKMET again is a bit too strong and the GFS
exhibits its typical fast bias. Outside of that, there is good
enough agreement such that a non-UKMET blend would be appropriate
here as well.
Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml
Taylor