Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
145 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2019
Valid Nov 18/1200 UTC thru Nov 22/0000 UTC
...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...
12Z Model Evaluation with Preferences and Forecast Confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Average
19Z update: No much significant changes noted with the rest of the
12Z guidance to warrant any changes with the general model blend
preference.
---previous discussion---
Through 48 hours, forecast models are in reasonably good agreement
with the synoptic setup and pattern across the CONUS. The
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will have a pair of shortwave troughs
rotate through the larger scale trough present. Here, the NAM is a
bit aggressive/amplified with its leading shortwave on Tuesday,
but the mass fields are not terribly different. Out west, the
upper level low off Baja and a dropping shortwave along the west
coast will absorb and become a large closed upper level low over
southern Nevada. After about 60 hours, the typical biases seen in
the guidance start to show where the GFS is faster than the rest,
pulling the feature into the Four Corners region as early as
Thursday evening. The 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC offer some utility, so
overall a general model blend is preferred at this time.
Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml
Taylor