Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1147 PM EST Mon Nov 25 2019
Valid Nov 26/0000 UTC thru Nov 29/1200 UTC
...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...
00Z Model Evaluation with Preferences and Forecast Confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: Non-CMC model blend
Confidence: Slightly above average
The latest model guidance continues to show better agreement with
the two significant systems affecting the CONUS through the next 3
days: 1) negative tilted trough from the Plains to Great Lakes,
and 2) rapidly amplifying large scale troughing over the West
Coast.
The 12Z CMC continues to be a bit of an outlier for the
Plains/Midwest system with a slightly slower timing and at times,
a southern/southwest scenario where the rest of the guidance has
subtly shifted to the north/northwest and is tightly clustered.
The GFS may be a touch fast but overall the spread for the low
track has lessened such that a non-CMC blend should continue to be
sufficient.
For the West Coast, the models have tightened on the evolution of
the very anomalous low pressure center slamming into the CA/OR
coast. The GFS is a touch fast here as well, but the rest of the
guidance shows similar position and depth when the low makes
landfall (sub 980 mb).
Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml
Taylor