Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
117 PM EST Sun Dec 22 2019
Valid Dec 22/1200 UTC thru Dec 26/0000 UTC
...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...
12Z Model Evaluation with preferences & forecast confidence
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Any NAM/GFS initialization errors do not seem to degrade their
short range forecasts.
Lower 48 and vicinity
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Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Slightly Above Average
Models have continued to converge on relatively similar forecasts
and show good agreement overall over the next few days. The
biggest differences appear to be associated with details such as
how the deep layer cyclone near the Southeast ejects
east-southeast over the Atlantic, where the non-NAM guidance has
shown a long term slowing trend due to a corresponding slowing of
the northern stream shortwave near the US/Canadian border, and a
secondary shortwave/possible deep layer cyclone near California on
Wednesday. The preference was to lean toward a broad-based model
blend to deal with lingering detail differences with slightly
above average confidence.
Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml
Roth