Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1150 PM EST Mon Dec 23 2019
Valid Dec 24/0000 UTC thru Dec 27/1200 UTC
...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...
00Z Model Evaluation with Preference and Forecast Confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: Non-CMC blend
Confidence: Above average
Over the past couple model cycles, the deterministic models and
ensembles have converged on a relatively similar forecast with
decreasing spread. Some minor differences remain from a mass field
perspective, but this has not led to substantial variation in the
model QPFs.
The 12Z CMC shows the greatest departures from model consensus,
with the slowest progression of the closed low near Baja
California on Thursday, and a stronger shortwave lifting through
the Upper Midwest. This does lead to a few more notable
differences in the QPF, particularly in the Upper Midwest with
higher QPF.
Therefore, the preference is for a broad multi-model blend that
excludes the CMC. The remaining models (ECMWF, GFS, UKMET, NAM)
are mostly well within the envelope of ensemble spread and have
similar mass field forecasts.
Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml
Lamers