Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1135 PM EST Mon Feb 03 2020
Valid Feb 04/0000 UTC thru Feb 07/1200 UTC
...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...
00Z Model Evaluation with Final Preferences and Confidence
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...Evolving full latitude trough over the Central US through Thu...
...Surface wave developing over the Lower MS Valley...moving into
the interior Mid Atlantic late
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Preference: 12z NAM/12z ECMWF/12z GEFS mean/00z ECWMF ensemble
mean blend
Confidence: Average
Evolving positive tilted long wave trough over the Intermountain
West into the south/central Plains over the next couple of days is
well agreed upon by the most recent guidance. After about 06.00Z,
the 00Z GFS continues to be ahead of the rest of the guidance,
which has been seen in the past several model cycles. The spread
has lessened somewhat in the last 2 model cycles and the 18Z GEFS
mean is fairly in line with the overall consensus, which the ECENS
and ECMWF is a fairly good proxy. Contrarily, the 12Z CMC remains
the slowest solution with the digging trough. Based on this, a
blend of the 12Z ECMWF/UKMET, 18Z GEFS mean, and 00Z NAM are
preferred.
Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml
Taylor