Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
150 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2020
Valid Feb 10/1200 UTC thru Feb 14/0000 UTC
...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...
12Z Model Evaluation with preferences & confidence
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There do not seem to be GFS/NAM initialization issues which
degrade their forecasts.
Trough dropping into the Great Lakes Wed/Thu
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Preference: Non-UKMET compromise
Confidence: Average
The 12z guidance has changed in relation to the system swinging
through the Great Lakes Wednesday into Thursday. The non-GFS
guidance has trended quicker, making the 12z GFS more relevant
than previously thought. The 12z UKMET has gone from the slowest
to the quickest solution with this feature showing the greatest
instability, so its solution wasn't considered viable. Would lean
away from the 12z UKMET here (compromise of the 12z NAM, 12z GFS,
12z Canadian, and 12z ECMWF) with only average confidence.
Elsewhere across the Lower 48
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Differences amongst the guidance are well within the noise with
other systems moving across the lower 48. Prefer a compromise of
the available guidance there with above average confidence.
Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml
Roth