Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
134 PM EST Tue Feb 11 2020
Valid Feb 11/1200 UTC thru Feb 15/0000 UTC
...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...
12Z Model Evaluation with final preferences & confidence
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Overall Pattern Across the CONUS
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Preference: Non-UKMET blend through day 2, non-UKMET/non-NAM blend
by day 3
Confidence: Average
Over the next 3 days, the closed upper level low over the
Southwest US is expected to track slowly eastward and then become
absorbed into the developing northern stream troughing over the
central US and Great Lakes regions. Meanwhile, ridging is
generally expected along the western US through day 2, before the
next eastern Pacific trough splits into discrete northern and
southern stream shortwaves across the Pacific Northwest-northern
Rockies and off the coast of central-southern CA respectively. At
the surface, low pressure will track from the western Gulf Coast
region by 12Z Wednesday northeast toward the eastern OH Valley and
through the interior Northeast Wednesday night and Thursday
morning.
Overall, the most recent guidance is in average to above average
agreement with the synoptic features through day 2. The exception
is in the 12Z UKMET, which compared to the other guidance is a bit
more amplified and faster with the shortwave trough across the PAC
NW to the Northern Rockies Thursday night into Friday. By day 3
(Friday), the NAM is the only model that closes off a 500 mb low
off the southern CA coast, while the NAM is also on amplified
edges of the guidance spread with the trough traversing the
eastern CONUS.
Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml
Hurley