Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1111 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2020

Valid Feb 27/0000 UTC thru Mar 01/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00z GFS/NAM Evaluation w/ Model Preferences & Forecast Confidence
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS initialization errors do not seem to degrade their short
range forecasts.

Lower 48 and vicinity
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Preference:  General model compromise
Confidence:  Above average

The deterministic guidance shows details issues with a low moving
by the Pacific Northwest on Friday and subsequent low track just
north of the US/Canadian border and trailing frontal progression
across MN Sunday morning.  However, the global ensemble spread
shows greater dispersion, implying that any of the deterministic
solutions have merit.  The preference is for a blend of the 00z
GFS, 00z NAM, 12z Canadian, 12z UKMET, and 12z ECMWF with above
average confidence.


Model trends at <a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml"><u>www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml</u></a>
500 mb forecasts at <a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml"><u>www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml</u></a>

Roth