Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
115 AM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

Valid Feb 27/0000 UTC thru Mar 01/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00z Model Evaluation w/ Model Preferences & Forecast Confidence
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS initialization errors do not seem to degrade their short
range forecasts.

Lower 48 and vicinity
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Preference:  General model compromise
Confidence:  Above average

While the deterministic guidance shows detail issues with a low
moving by the Pacific Northwest on Friday and subsequent low track
just north of the US/Canadian border and trailing frontal
progression across MN Sunday morning, they are smaller now that
the 00z model suite is fully available.  The global ensemble
spread shows greater dispersion, implying that any of the
deterministic solutions have merit.  The preference is for a blend
of the 00z GFS, 00z NAM, 00z Canadian, 00z UKMET, and 00z ECMWF
with above average confidence.


Model trends at <a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml"><u>www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml</u></a>
500 mb forecasts at <a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml"><u>www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml</u></a>

Roth