Model Diagnostic Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 159 AM EST Wed Mar 04 2020 Valid Mar 04/0000 UTC thru Mar 07/1200 UTC ...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air ingest... 00Z Model evaluation with preferences and confidence intervals ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Any NAM/GFS initialization errors noted do not seem to degrade their short range forecasts. Systems Impacting the lower 48 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ The guidance shows small differences with the low moving along the Gulf coast and offshore the Southeast, the deep layer cyclone moving near the US/Canadian border, as well as with an upper trough moving towards the West Coast Saturday morning. Since these issues lie safely within the 12z global ensemble spread, prefer a compromise of the 00z GFS, 00z NAM, 00z UKMET, 00z Canadian, and 00z ECMWF with slightly above average confidence. This implies leaning away from the 00z NAM/00z Canadian down south and offshore the southeast and away from the more northerly 00z NAM near the Great Lakes. Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml 500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml Roth