Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
159 AM EST Wed Mar 04 2020
Valid Mar 04/0000 UTC thru Mar 07/1200 UTC
...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...
00Z Model evaluation with preferences and confidence intervals
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Any NAM/GFS initialization errors noted do not seem to degrade
their short range forecasts.
Systems Impacting the lower 48
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The guidance shows small differences with the low moving along the
Gulf coast and offshore the Southeast, the deep layer cyclone
moving near the US/Canadian border, as well as with an upper
trough moving towards the West Coast Saturday morning. Since
these issues lie safely within the 12z global ensemble spread,
prefer a compromise of the 00z GFS, 00z NAM, 00z UKMET, 00z
Canadian, and 00z ECMWF with slightly above average confidence.
This implies leaning away from the 00z NAM/00z Canadian down south
and offshore the southeast and away from the more northerly 00z
NAM near the Great Lakes.
Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml
Roth