Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1236 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2020
Valid Mar 13/0000 UTC thru Mar 16/1200 UTC
...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...
00Z Model Evaluation with Preferences and Confidence
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...Closed Low developing over Pacific NW through Saturday...
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Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Slightly above average
A large upper level closed low is expected to develop and drop
down the Pacific NW coast over the next 3 days. Virtually all of
the guidance has converged on a similar solution through the
forecast period at 500 mb. At the surface, there remains some
timing differences with the surface low moving onshore but still a
general model blend should suffice for this area at this time.
...Closed low tracking through the Southwest and weakening across
the Great Plains through Saturday...
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Preference: Non-NAM blend
Confidence: Slightly above average
Relatively good agreement with the weakening/opening up of the
closed low over the Southwest U.S. into the central Plains through
the next 3 days. The biggest model differences lie with the 00Z
NAM which continues to be too fast with the wave as it reaches the
central Plains and lower Ohio Valley. The 00Z GFS is a bit slow
compared to the consensus and ensemble, but for now appears usable
for the mass fields. So will go with a non-NAM blend at this time.
Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml
Taylor