Model Diagnostic Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1245 PM EDT Tue May 12 2020 Valid May 12/1200 UTC thru May 16/0000 UTC ...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMSDM) for the status of the upper air ingest... 12Z NAM/GFS Evaluation Including Initial Preferences and Confidence ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ...Closed low over Alberta tracking to the Upper Great Lakes Thu...then across Northern New England Fri... ...Surface low moving from the north central US Wed night into Northern New England Fri... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: 12Z NAM/00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET blend Confidence: Average The 12Z NAM/GFS are close to the consensus with the closed mid level low as it tracks out of Alberta Wed as it moves across the Upper Great Lakes Thu night. After that time, the 12Z GFS slows when compared to the consensus and the 00Z GEFS mean (though not as slow as the 00Z CMC, which represents the western edge of the guidance envelope), while the 00Z ECMWF becomes faster than the consensus, especially after the opening wave crosses northern New England. For the mid level system, given the spread, the 12z NAM/00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET is the preferred blend. At the surface, there is even more spread concerning the placement of the low over northern New England Thu into Fri. For the most part, the surface low is fairly weak, and in this scenario, it is not clear where along the low level baroclinic zone the low develops. Because of the spread in the surface low position, forecast confidence is only average. ....Closed mid level low off the Pacific Northwest coast Thu...moving into the Northern Rockies Fri... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: 12Z NAM/12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF blend Confidence: Average The 12Z NAM/GFS are close to the consensus taking the closed mid level low from the Pacific Northwest coast Thu morning across the Northern Rockies during Fri. The 00Z UKMET closes the mid level system down as it moves over ID early Fri, while the 00Z CMC also attempts to close the mid level system, but further east across south central MT. The 00z ECMWF/ECMWF ensemble mean are close to the 12Z NAM/GFS cluster by the end of the period, leading some credence to that solution. However, given the spread with respect to the 00Z UKMET/CMC, forecast confidence is only average. ...Broad mid level trough over northern Mexico Thu/Fri... ...Surface low over eastern NM/west TX Fri... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: General model blend Confidence: Slightly above average The 12Z NAM/GFS are close to the consensus taking a developing long wave trough across northwest Mexico Thu night, which then becomes a broad trough across northern Mexico toward the end of the period. In fact, outside of the 00Z CMC (which is a bit faster than the consensus), there is generally good clustering with this feature. There is a bit more spread concerning the placement of the surface low across eastern NM/far west TX by the end of the period. However, the surface low is fairly weak, and a general model blend should suffice with slightly above average forecast confidence. Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml 500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml Hayes