Model Diagnostic Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 102 AM EDT Wed May 13 2020 Valid May 13/0000 UTC thru May 16/1200 UTC ...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMSDM) for the status of the upper air ingest... 00Z Model Evaluation Including Preferences and Confidence ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ...Closed low over Alberta tracking to the Upper Great Lakes Thu...then across Northern New England Fri... ...Surface low moving from the north central US Wed night into Northern New England Fri... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: NAM/12Z ECMWF blend Confidence: Average Differences develop early, with the GFS notably slower and more amplified than the NAM and 12Z ECMWF as the system moves across the northern Plains on Thursday. While the 00Z UKMET and 12Z Canadian are slower as well, neither are amplified as the GFS across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Thursday night into Friday. Overall, there is good ensemble support for the faster solutions, with both the 18Z GEFS and 12Z EC ensemble means favoring a solution less amplified and more progressive than the GFS. ....Closed mid level low off the Pacific Northwest coast Thu...moving into the Northern Rockies Fri... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: General model blend Confidence: Slightly above average Model consensus continues to take a closed mid level low from the Pacific Northwest coast Thursday morning, eastward across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies on Friday. Some timing/amplitude differences begin to develop as the system moves into the High Plains Saturday morning, but overall models are fairly good agreement with this system through 12Z Saturday. ...Broad mid level trough over northern Mexico Thu/Fri... ...Surface low over eastern NM/west TX Fri... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: General model blend Confidence: Slightly above average Overall, models remain in good agreement -- continuing to show a long wave trough developing over northwest Mexico Thursday night before broadening across northern Mexico into the southern Plains Friday into early Saturday. Pereira Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml 500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml