Model Diagnostic Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 123 AM EDT Fri Jun 05 2020 Valid Jun 05/0000 UTC thru Jun 08/1200 UTC ...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMSDM) for the status of the upper air ingest... 00Z Initial Model Evaluation Including Preferences and Confidence ...Amplifying wave shifting east across Ontario through tonight and northern New England Saturday night... Preference: Blend of 12Z ECMWF/00Z NAM with some 00Z GFS/12Z UKMET Confidence: Average Good agreement among global guidance with this trough amplifying as it shifts east across the northeastern CONUS this weekend. The 00Z GFS depicts its typical too progressive bias by Sunday/Day 3, but that is as the mid-level trough axis is shifting off Maine. The main outlier is the 12Z CMC which is much less amplified with the trough over the northeast. QPF from the 12Z ECMWF/00Z NAM are quite similar for Day 2 and are preferred. The GFS QPF is a bit progressive for Day 2, but inclusion of it and the 12Z UKMET are reasonable at lower weights. ...Initial cut-off low offshore southern California, moving onshore tonight, into Great Basin Saturday, the Wyoming Rockies Saturday night, and the northern Plains Sunday. Preference: General Model Blend Confidence: Slightly above average A cut off upper low will onshore into southern California this evening. The low opens up as it moves inland within confluent flow and becomes an open wave and deamplifies as it moves north across the Great Basin Saturday. The shortwave energy merges with the northern stream closed low over the Pacific northwest, with the models showing a 700-500 mb wave and sfc flow developing in MT late Saturday, with the sfc low crossing into Canada by 12Z Sunday. Even the sfc low developing in ID and moving into MT Sat has good clustering among global guidance. The good clustering supports a model blend to mitigate minor timing and location differences. ...Closed low off British Columbia drifting south through Friday night and then off Washington/Oregon Saturday, moving east and onshore Saturday night-Sunday... Preference: General Model Blend Confidence: Above average Excellent global deterministic clustering with the closed 500 mb low moving south offshore from British Columbia Friday, then off WA/OR Saturday, then moving the low onshore Saturday night, and into the Northern Rockies Sunday. There is better than usual clustering among these models and their respective ensemble means. ...Cristobal... Preference: 03Z NHC advisory Confidence: Refer to NHC products The official track for T.D. Cristobal is a bit of compromise between global guidance, avoiding the faster and farther east GFS through Day 2. The 12Z ECMWF and 00Z NAM tracks a little slower and farther west with the 00Z CMC/UKMET a little faster and on the east side. Most guidance shifts west on Day 3 near the central Gulf coast with the NHC track on the east side of the global deterministics by Sunday night. Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml 500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml Jackson