Model Diagnostic Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 321 AM EDT Fri Jun 05 2020 Valid Jun 05/0000 UTC thru Jun 08/1200 UTC ...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMSDM) for the status of the upper air ingest... 00Z Final Model Evaluation Including Preferences and Confidence ...Amplifying wave shifting east across Ontario through tonight and northern New England Saturday night... Preference: Blend of 00Z ECMWF/NAM/CMC with some 00Z GFS/UKMET Confidence: Average Good agreement among global guidance with this trough amplifying as it shifts east across the northeastern CONUS this weekend. The 00Z GFS depicts its typical too progressive bias by Sunday/Day 3, but that is as the mid-level trough axis is shifting off Maine. The 00Z CMC is now much more in line with the consensus with rather similar QPF to the 00Z NAM. Day 2 QPF from the 00Z ECMWF/ NAM are similar and are preferred along with the CMC. The GFS QPF is a bit progressive for Day 2, but inclusion of it and the 12Z UKMET are reasonable at lower weights. ...Initial cut-off low offshore southern California, moving onshore tonight, into Great Basin Saturday, the Wyoming Rockies Saturday night, and the northern Plains Sunday. Preference: General Model Blend Confidence: Slightly above average A cut off upper low will onshore into southern California this evening. The low opens up as it moves inland within confluent flow and becomes an open wave and deamplifies as it moves north across the Great Basin Saturday. The shortwave energy merges with the northern stream closed low over the Pacific northwest, with the models showing a 700-500 mb wave and sfc flow developing in MT late Saturday, with the sfc low crossing into Canada by 12Z Sunday. Even the sfc low developing in ID and moving into MT Sat has good clustering among global guidance. The good clustering supports a model blend to mitigate minor timing and location differences. ...Closed low off British Columbia drifting south through Friday night and then off Washington/Oregon Saturday, moving east and onshore Saturday night-Sunday... Preference: General Model Blend Confidence: Above average Excellent global deterministic clustering with the closed 500 mb low moving south offshore from British Columbia Friday, then off WA/OR Saturday, then moving the low onshore Saturday night, and into the Northern Rockies Sunday. There is better than usual clustering among these models and their respective ensemble means. ...Cristobal... Preference: 03Z NHC advisory Confidence: Refer to NHC products The official track for T.D. Cristobal is a good of compromise of non-GFS 00Z global guidance through Day 2 since the GFS is farther east and faster through this time. The 00Z ECMWF/NAM/UKMET/CMC cluster well through Day 2. Most guidance shifts the track west on Day 3 near the central Gulf coast with the NHC track right near all global deterministics but the 00Z CMC by Sunday night. Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml 500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml Jackson