Model Diagnostic Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 302 AM EDT Sat Jun 06 2020 Valid Jun 06/0000 UTC thru Jun 09/1200 UTC ...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMSDM) for the status of the upper air ingest... 00Z Final Model Evaluation Including Preferences and Confidence ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ...Amplifying wave shifting east across the Northeast tonight... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: General Model Blend Confidence: Above average A positively tilted trough extending from northern Quebec to central Ontario amplifies as it pushes east across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic tonight. 00Z guidance are now in excellent agreement including the CMC which is no longer the deepest solution. ...Low over southern California which crosses the Great Basin today, the Wyoming Rockies this evening, and the northern Plains tonight. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: General Model Blend Confidence: Slightly above average The 00Z GFS remains a bit more amplified as the trough lifts over the northern Plains near the MT/ND border tonight, but not enough to be ruled out of the excellent agreeing consensus among the rest of the 00Z global deterministic guidance. ...Closed low drifting south off British Columbia then shifting into Washington/Oregon Saturday tonight and a northern trough drifting east across the northern Rockies Sunday through Monday... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: General Model Blend Confidence: Slightly above average Well defined symmetric closed low off BC will make landfall into the Pacific Northwest tonight. Uncertainty arises as the central core enhanced by the Pacific jet rounds the broadening base into the Snake River Valley/Great Basin and begins to interact with the exiting shortwave lifting north from the Wyoming Rockies. Still, most of the uncertainty comes with differences in timing within the guidance suite and therefore the magnitude of amplification with the precursory wave moving into SW Canada. The GFS and NAM remain the most aggressive and swing the jet through WY into MT stronger and faster. Timing is much better among the 00Z suite, so a general model blend is preferred. ...Cristobal... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: 03Z NHC advisory Confidence: Refer to NHC products The official track for T.S. Cristobal is clustered well with global guidance and slower than the outlier 00Z CMC for timing into the central Gulf coast through Sunday night. There is tight clustering of the low position with the 00Z UKMET the deepest in terms of central pressure by a few millibars. The 00Z GFS slowed in its Day 1 timing across the central Gulf. The 00Z NAM was joined by the 00Z ECMWF as the western side of the Days 1-3 forecast track. Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml 500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml Jackson