Model Diagnostic Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 313 AM EDT Sun Jun 07 2020 Valid Jun 07/0000 UTC thru Jun 10/1200 UTC ...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMSDM) for the status of the upper air ingest... 00Z Model Evaluation Including Final Preferences and Confidence ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ...Closed low over the Pacific Northwest swinging across the northern Rockies late today... ...Associated upper trough moving from the Great Basin to the Great Plains tonight through Tuesday... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC Confidence: Average While the general pattern of the upper low swinging east from the Pacific Northwest today lifting across northeast Montana into Saskatchewan on Monday is in fair agreement there are strength issues, mainly from NCEP guidance. The 00Z NAM/GFS keep the low closed across the Rockies into MT and the GFS/00Z GEFS further strengthen the low over Saskatchewan on Monday while non-NCEP guidance opens the low over the ID/MT Rockies tonight and keeps a trough axis over the northern Plains through Monday night before absorbing Cristobal remnants. This stronger low/trough over the northern Plains in the NAM/GFS pushes the trough farther east which makes for convergence/predecessor rain from Cristobal farther east over the north-central Plains on Day 2 than non-NCEP guidance.. Particularly with the GFS, the eastern favoring brings Cristobal remnants farther north quicker. There is excellent agreement among 00Z non-NCEP guidance, so the ECMWF/UKMET/CMC are preferred. ...Cristobal... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: 03Z NHC advisory Confidence: Refer to NHC products 00Z guidance generally shifted a bit west and a bit faster compared to the previous runs through Day 2. Global deterministic guidance are all in decent agreement through Monday night before the 00Z GFS begins to outpace the pack likely due to a stronger low over the Canadian Prairies Monday shunting the trough farther east with an earlier interaction with Cristobal as noted above. The 03Z NHC track is on the faster side of the global sfc low center progs, but not by much. The 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC are in close agreement through Tuesday night. Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml 500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml Jackson