Model Diagnostic Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1254 AM EDT Mon Jun 08 2020 Valid Jun 08/0000 UTC thru Jun 11/1200 UTC ...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMSDM) for the status of the upper air ingest... 00Z Model Evaluation Including Initial Preferences and Confidence ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ...Positively tilted trough over the northern Rockies to Intermountain West that spins off a low that crosses the central Rockies Monday night and lifts over the Upper Midwest Wednesday... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: non-GFS blend Confidence: Average A reinforcing shortwave moving along the positively tilted trough over the Great Basin spins off as its own low that crosses the CO/NM border Monday night and pushes into the south-central Great Plains Tuesday trailing the remnants of Cristobal then through midweek as it turns north and crosses the Great Lakes Wednesday night. There is decent agreement on this pattern for all global models except the 00Z GFS which is much more progressive and has a greater interaction of the spun off low and the Cristobal remnants making for a much deeper low with a farther west track over the Upper Midwest than the rest of the currently available guidance. The NAM/ECMWF/UKMET/CMC all have a slower low crossing the central Rockies allowing Cristobal to get farther ahead. The 00Z NAM develops a deeper low over the south-central Plains which is understandably slower than the 12Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC. As of now a non-GFS solution remains the recommendation. ...Cristobal... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: Non-GFS blend Confidence: Refer to NHC products Non-GFS models are well-clustered through Tuesday night for the Cristobal remnants track up the Mississippi River then to the Upper Midwest. The 03Z NHC advisory remains on the faster side of this consensus solution through Tuesday night. Any interaction with the low approaching from the central Plains on Tuesday will need to be monitored, but as of now it is thought the GFS is too aggressive with this interaction. Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml 500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml Jackson