Model Diagnostic Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 109 AM EDT Tue Jun 09 2020 Valid Jun 09/0000 UTC thru Jun 12/1200 UTC ...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMSDM) for the status of the upper air ingest... 00Z Model Evaluation Including Initial Preferences and Confidence ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ...Low that spins off trough over the central Rockies and lifts from the central Plains over the Upper Midwest Wednesday into Wednesday night... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: non-NCEP blend Confidence: Average The 00Z NAM is deeper and thus too slow with the low crossing KS through tonight while the 00Z GFS slowed from its previously too fast solution, but is still ahead of the the consensus as the system turns north over the Midwest Wednesday. The 00Z GFS is also just a little faster with the cold front that reaches the Eastern Seaboard Thursday. For now, the preference is for the 12Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC which have excellent timing agreement with this system and resultant cold front. ...Cristobal Remnants... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: General Model Blend with less weight on NAM/GFS Confidence: Average The 00Z GFS makes good strides to be closer to the rest of the guidance into Day 2 as the remnants lift north into Canada, but there is still more interaction with the trailing system in the GFS than any other guidance. The 00Z GFS/NAM are the most progressive and most west with the track through the Upper Midwest Tuesday night. The 12Z ECMWF is the slowest solution into Tuesday night with the 12Z UKMET/CMC generally in between. Preference for now is non-NCEP with some limited inclusion of NAM/GFS allowed given the actual track differences are not far apart (given this is within 24hrs now). ...Southern Gulf of Alaska Low Stalling off the BC Coast through Thursday night... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: Non-GFS Confidence: Average Good agreement on Day 1 rain which is heaviest of the three days (general onshore flow Days 2/3), but then the 00Z GFS is much more amplified by late Thursday continuing into Friday which makes for more rain than the less amplified, bringing heavier Day 3 rain to the WA/OR coast than the rest of the global guidance. Jackson Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml 500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml