Model Diagnostic Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1253 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Valid Jun 10/0000 UTC thru Jun 13/1200 UTC ...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMSDM) for the status of the upper air ingest... 00Z Initial Model Evaluation Including Preferences and Confidence ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ...Low over eastern Kansas turning northeast and lifting over the Great Lakes through tonight... ...Associated cold front moving across the eastern CONUS, reaching the Eastern Seaboard Friday... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: Non-CMC General Model Blend Confidence: Average Good agreement on the initial low over KS swinging northeast through the Great Lakes through tonight. The trailing trough that drifts east across Ontario has divergent solutions. The 00Z GFS has slowed its progression of the trough and is now in good agreement. The 12Z CMC is the most progressive with this trough axis and though its lead cold frontal progression to the Eastern Seaboard is in good agreement with consensus, it is not nearly as positively tilted back over the Great Lakes as the rest of the guidance and thus misses out on Midwest precip on a reinforcing cold front on Day 3. Therefore, a non-CMC solution is recommended. ...Closed low off British Columbia and associated longwave trough digging and reaching the West Coast by Friday night... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: Non-GFS General Model Blend Confidence: Slightly Below Average Good agreement on reinforcing wave digging a trough off the CA coast through Thursday with the 00Z GFS sped up even more with this wave, keeping it open and ejecting it across the Great Basin Friday night which is well ahead of the 18Z GEFS mean. The consensus is to close the low and slowly bring it into north-central CA Friday night. The 12Z ECMWF is the slowest with this low which is typical for the model and the 12Z UKMET/CMC and 00Z NAM are all in a similar position along the CA/NV border by 13/12Z. There is a similar Day 3 precip pattern among these models, so a non-GFS blend is preferred. Jackson Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml 500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml