Model Diagnostic Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1246 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2020 Valid Jun 27/0000 UTC thru Jun 30/1200 UTC ...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMSDM) for the status of the upper air ingest... 00Z Model Evaluation Including Preferences and Forecast Confidence ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Closed low over Quebec Trough impacting the Northeast ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: Blend of the 00Z GFS/12Z UKMET/12Z ECMWF Confidence: Slightly above average The models are in good agreement on the details of the large closed low over Quebec and southward extension of the trough across the Northeast U.S. going through Saturday. By Sunday, the models suggest a new shortwave trough will cross the Great Lakes and help to amplify the synoptic scale trough over the Northeast, and the models support the closed low actually then dropping south into the interior of the Northeast going through Monday and Tuesday. The 00Z NAM is still a little more robust with this shortwave and results in a somewhat stronger closed low that is on the southwest side of the model consensus across the Northeast by the end of the period. Additionally, the 12Z CMC is a little to the southwest of the model consensus. The better model clustering and stronger ensemble support currently resides with the 00Z GFS, 12Z UKMET and 12Z ECMWF, and so a blend of these solutions will again be preferred. Deep upper trough/closed low digging into the West ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: Blend of the 00Z GFS/12Z UKMET/12Z ECMWF Confidence: Slightly above average A deep upper trough and associated closed low is forecast to amplify across the northern Rockies and Intermountain West this weekend as an upper level ridge builds across the Gulf of Alaska and also across the Midwest and Great Lakes region, suggesting a potential omega-block pattern. The models are in good agreement on the evolution through Sunday evening, after which the 12Z CMC takes the upper low farther south than the other guidance. The 00Z NAM gradually ends up with a stronger upper low impacting the northern Rockies from Sunday night through early Tuesday. Will prefer a blend of the better clustered 00Z GFS, 12Z UKMET and 12Z ECMWF solutions which also again have good ensemble support. Shortwaves lifting northeast over the Plains/Midwest ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: Blend of the 18Z GEFS mean and 12Z ECENS mean Confidence: Average Ahead of the deep western U.S. trough/closed low will be a pair of shortwave troughs that eject northeast out of the Southwest and across the Plains and Midwest. The 00Z NAM is a strong outlier with the first shortwave as it rides northeast from the central Plains to the upper Midwest going through Sunday with the global models largely flatter although the 12Z CMC was fairly amplified as well. The second shortwave has some model spread noted as the 12Z ECMWF and 12Z ECENS mean support a somewhat stronger solution versus the remaining guidance which is flatter. For now, a blend of the ensemble means will be preferred with both shortwave impulses. Remnant energy across the lower MS Valley Weakness lingering over Texas ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: General model blend Confidence: Above average The model support a gradual building of the subtropical ridge this weekend across the FL Peninsula and adjacent areas of the Gulf Coast states. Some of the weak shortwave energy lingering over the lower Mississippi Valley should shear out over top of the ridge through Saturday. However, there will still be a broad mid-level weakness/trough lingering over Texas which should tend to retrograde westward through Saturday, before then lifting north across the southern and central Plains ahead of the deep Western U.S. trough/closed low. A general model blend will again be preferred with the weak trough over Texas. Upper trough/low over Manitoba/Saskatchewan ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: Blend of the 12Z UKMET/12Z ECMWF Confidence: Average A separate closed low and associated trough over southwest Canada will drive deepening surface low pressure over areas of Manitoba and Saskatchewan going through Saturday and Sunday. The 12Z CMC is the strongest solution with the energy, with the 00Z NAM and 00Z GFS solutions both now generally the weakest. The 12Z UKMET and 12Z ECMWF solutions are in between the two camps, and a blend of these solutions will be preferred for the time being. Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml 500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml Orrison