Model Diagnostic Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1250 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2020 Valid Jul 24/0000 UTC thru Jul 27/1200 UTC ...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMSDM) for the status of the upper air ingest... 00Z Model Evaluation Including Preferences and Forecast Confidence ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ...Mid-upper level troughing tracking from the Northwest into the north-central U.S. through the weekend... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: General model blend Confidence: Average A mid-level closed low/shortwave trough will track through southwestern Canada Friday and Saturday with a cold front leading at the surface and extending into the northwestern U.S. As this energy reaches the Northern Plains late in the weekend, it will phase with some southern stream energy lifting through the Front Range and central Plains, which will act to deepen the troughing over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. The latest models show fairly good agreement with this evolution with just minor speed and timing differences noted but a general model blend should suffice. ...Tropical Storm Hanna... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: Official NHC Forecast Best Model Proxy: 12Z ECMWF/CMC/UKMET Confidence: refer to NHC products Tropical Depression Eight became Tropical Storm Hanna at 03Z in the central Gulf of Mexico. The latest model guidance continues to show fairly good clustering with the track and speed of the system as it heads westward toward the central Texas Gulf Coast. The latest trend has been for a shift southward and the best model proxy for the official forecast track is a blend of the 12Z ECMWF/CMC/UKMET. For the latest official guidance, see the most recent advisory from the National Hurricane Center. Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml 500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml This product will terminate August 15, 2020: www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf2/scn20-58pmdhmd_termination. pdf Taylor