Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
341 PM EDT Thu Oct 06 2022

Valid 00Z Fri Oct 07 2022 - 00Z Sun Oct 09 2022

...Temperatures plunging across the Central U.S. as strong cold
front pushes southward...

...Much improved conditions in the Northeast through Friday before
cooler air filters in behind cold front...

...Daily showers and thunderstorms continue for the Southern
Rockies/High Plains and the Southwest, with isolated instances of
flash flooding possible...

...Pleasant weather across much of the West through the end of the
week...

The main story through Saturday will be the potent cold front
moving southward across central and eastern CONUS, with
temperatures plunging as unseasonably cold air filters in from
Canada. Highs today across the northern Plains will struggle to
reach the 50-degree mark behind the frontal boundary, with
temperatures dipping below freezing tonight, leading to the
issuance of Freeze Warnings and Freeze Watches across the Dakotas.
Isolated areas in North Dakota may even see temperatures as low as
the upper teens on Friday morning. In addition to the frigid air,
breezy conditions will follow with the passage of the front and
gusts may reach 20-30 miles per hour. Lake-effect showers are also
in the forecast for the Upper Great Lakes as a result of the cold,
northwest flow across the warmer lake water. Some wet snow may mix
in for higher elevations of Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of
Michigan on Thursday night, though no accumulation is expected.
Below-average temperatures will continue spreading south on
Friday, with highs in the 50s and low-60s as far south as the
southern Plains and Mississippi Valley. Highs will remain even
cooler to the north as a strong Canadian high presses southward,
with mid-to-upper 40s expected for the Upper Midwest and Great
Lakes. Lows near freezing are again possible on Saturday morning
for the Great Lakes Region and Upper Mississippi Valley, with
temperatures beginning to rebound across the northern Plains as
more seasonable highs in the low 60s return.

Beautiful weather is in store for the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic
through Saturday, as the upper-level low that brought dreary
conditions this past week has finally slid well offshore. Sunny
skies, dry conditions, and seasonable temperatures in the
low-to-mid 70s for highs are expected through Friday throughout
the region, with highs slightly warmer in the upper 70s to mid-80s
across the Southeast and Florida. The warm-up will be short-lived,
as the aforementioned potent cold front makes its way through the
region Friday evening, bringing cooler, fall-like temperatures in
its wake, with highs in the mid-to-upper 60s expected on Saturday.
Unlike this past week, the unseasonably cool air will not be
accompanied by wet and cloudy conditions, with dry weather
following in its wake and providing residents in the Northeast
with the perfect weather to view the emergence of fall foliage in
interior New England.

Similarly to the Northeast, pleasant conditions will continue
across the Pacific Northwest, California, and the Great Basin
through Saturday as an upper-level ridge remains in place over the
region. Highs are forecast to remain in the upper 70s and low 80s
for the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin, lower 90s for the
central California Valleys, low to mid-70s along the California
coast, and mid-90s to near 100 for the Desert Southwest. Moreover,
conditions will remain dry during this span, resulting in overall
pleasant conditions through the end of the week.

Further south, daily showers and thunderstorms will continue
across the Southern Rockies and Southwest on the east side of a
lingering upper-level low drifting over the Southwest. Anomalously
high moisture that remains pooled across the area will help
enhance storm rainfall rates and totals, and isolated instances of
flash flooding are possible, particularly for areas of sensitive
terrain and across burn scars. As a result, a Marginal Risk of
Excessive Rainfall has been issued for much of Arizona and New
Mexico through Saturday. High temperatures will remain below
normal with mid-60s to low 70s expected.


Russell

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php