Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 PM EDT Wed May 06 2026

Valid 00Z Thu May 07 2026 - 00Z Sat May 09 2026

...Lingering heavy snowfall in the Colorado Rockies this evening...

...Very heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms to impact the
Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast today as a cold front
continues southeastward...

...A frontal system is expected to form in the Northern Plains and
Rockies, bringing increased precipitation chances to end the
week...

After dropping 1-2 feet of snow over the last 24 hours, a
significant late-season winter storm over the Rockies is expected
to wind down this evening as a cold front and trailing high
pressure press into the Southern High Plains. In its wake,
widespread hard freeze conditions are expected tonight into
tomorrow morning across much of the High Plains. Users are
encouraged to exercise caution if shoveling snowfall from this
storm, as the wet and heavy nature of the snow may increase the
risk of overexertion and injury. 

With the winter storm waning, much of our attention today is
focused over the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast as a
moving cold front sparks widespread thunderstorm development over
the next few hours. A very moist, unstable, and highly-sheared
airmass pooled ahead of the front will support intense
thunderstorms capable of all hazard types, including numerous
flash floods, tornadoes, severe wind, and hail roughly focused
along a Jackson to Birmingham line. Fortunately, by tomorrow the
front should migrate far enough south to give a brief reprieve
from the flash flooding and severe threat Thursday, although an
isolated flash flood or severe thunderstorm remain possible along
the Central Gulf Coast. As we look toward Friday however, the
boundary is forecast to lift northward as a warm front which will
lead to another round of storms and heavy rainfall over a similar
area. 

To the north, a weak frontal system is expected to develop over
the Northern Plains and Rockies as a mid-level shortwave trough
approaches from the northwest. This system should yield chances
for showers and thunderstorms to the Northern Plains beginning
Thursday morning, which continue into the evening. High-elevation
locations in the Northern Rockies could see precipitation in the
form of snow or a wintry mix during this time, although no
hazardous weather is anticipated with this activity.

Temperature wise, below-average temperatures will overtake much of
the CONUS east of the Continental Divide on Thursday behind the
expansive cold front. Above-average temperatures will resume in
the Southwest today and continue for the next few days, while the
Northwest remains unseasonably warm through the remainder of the
period.

Asherman/Blanco-Alcala


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php