Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
249 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Valid 00Z Tue Jun 16 2026 - 00Z Thu Jun 18 2026

...Increasing threat of significant heavy rainfall from South
Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley through the next couple of
days...

...Cooler air surges into the eastern two-thirds of the country...

...Heat across the Pacific Northwest will begin to moderate on
Tuesday...

A weather pattern favoring cold air intrusions from Canada is
bringing a refreshingly cool airmass into much of the eastern
two-thirds of the country.  In the post-frontal airmass, morning
temperatures in the 40s and 50s will spread from the Northern Tier
to the Northeast by tomorrow morning. Daytime high temperatures
will only recover to the 70s and lower 80s, which are more than 10
degrees below normal for portions of those areas.

While the cool air mass dominates the weather pattern across much
of the central and eastern U.S., the forecast remains on track for
a prolonged heavy rainfall event from South Texas through the
Lower Mississippi Valley. This is in response to complex
interactions among an upper-level disturbance exiting the Mexican
plateau, tropical moisture near the western Gulf and northeastern
Mexico, and the same cold front becoming nearly stationary near
the Gulf Coast. Through the next 3 days, storm total rainfall of
5-7" with locally higher amounts can be expected along the Texas
coastline into Louisiana. Numerous instances can be expected
through Wednesday in this area, some of which could be
significant. In addition, the National Hurricane Center continues
to monitor this area of disturbed weather for tropical cyclone
development near the Texas Gulf Coast later this week, although
uncertainty remains with how this system will evolve.

Across the Northern Tier, a couple of quick-moving low pressure
systems will deliver showers and gusty winds through the next
couple of days.  The first system will move from the Northern
Plains today to the Great Lakes on Tuesday. The second system is
forecast to be the stronger of the two, and will be intensify over
the Northern Plains Wednesday morning, bringing with it the chance
of widely scattered severe weather and flash flooding to the
Midwest.

Elsewhere, monsoonal showers and embedded thunderstorms from the
Four Corners to the Southern Rockies today should have taper off
tomorrow. Across the Pacific Northwest, heat is forecast to peak
today with record-high temperatures reaching as high as the
upper-90s before cooling off on Tuesday.  The Desert Southwest and
the Central Valley of California will remain hot, with highs in
the 110s and 90s-100s, respectively.  Florida will see more
numerous showers and thunderstorms across the northern part of the
state through the next couple of days.


Asherman/Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php