The Weather Prediction Center

Short Range Forecast Discussion

[Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product]
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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022

Valid 00Z Sun May 29 2022 - 00Z Tue May 31 2022

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Northeast through Sunday morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe storms over parts of the
Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley Saturday evening through
Monday morning...

...There is a threat of heavy snowfall for the highest elevations
of the Northern Rockies...

...There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the
Southwest/Southern Rockies and Southern High Plains...

A deep upper-level trough will develop over the northwestern
portion of the country from Saturday night through Sunday. The
associated front will produce showers and thunderstorms will
develop along and ahead of the boundary over the Plains and Upper
Mississippi Valley Saturday evening through Monday morning.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central Plains and a
second area over parts of the Southern High Plains through Sunday
morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a
minimal threat of tornadoes. However, there will be an increased
threat of severe wind gusts over 65 knots over both regions.

The severe thunderstorm threat increases and moves to the Upper
Mississippi Valley and the Northern/Central Plains on Sunday.
Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central Plains and Upper
Mississippi Valley from Sunday into Monday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition,
there will be an increased threat of severe wind gusts over 65
knots and two-inch diameter hail. Furthermore, there will be a
threat of excessive rainfall over the Upper Midwest. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Northern/Central Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley
from Sunday through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will
create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that
experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.

The front will move eastward slightly on Monday, as does the
threat of severe thunderstorms. Therefore, on Monday, the SPC has
issued an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern/Central Plains and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes. Moreover, there will be an increased threat of
excessive rainfall as more moisture surges into the region.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall
over parts of the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley on
Monday. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small
streams the most vulnerable.

Meanwhile, overnight Saturday, a front over the Northeast Coast
moves offshore by Sunday morning. As a result, there will be
showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Northeast associated
with the front, ending by late Saturday night. Some of the
thunderstorms will produce heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Northeast. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small
streams the most vulnerable. Further, onshore flow off the
Atlantic will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms over
parts of Florida through Monday.

Moreover, as the upper-level trough builds over the Northwest,
rain will develop over parts of the Pacific Northwest and Northern
California and extend eastward to the Northern Rockies. As a
result, there will be light wet snow over some of the highest
elevations of Cascades to the Northern Rockies from Saturday
evening into Sunday. As the upper-level trough deepens, the snow
levels will lower. Therefore, heavy wet snow will develop over the
higher elevations of the Northern Intermountain Region and the
Northern Rockies from Sunday evening into Monday.

Finally, there is a Critical Risk of fire weather over the
Southwest/Southern Rockies and Southern High Plains from Saturday
evening into Monday morning. The threat is due to strong gusty
winds, dry fuels, and low humidity.

Ziegenfelder

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




Last Updated: 359 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022