Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 AM EDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Valid 12Z Sun Sep 06 2026 - 12Z Tue Sep 08 2026

...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across the Southeast
for the remainder of the Labor Day weekend...

...Cool and unsettled weather will progress through the Great
Basin and Intermountain West with heavy rain emerging across
northwestern Montana on Labor Day, followed by strong
thunderstorms across the northern Plains into Tuesday...

...Heat persists across the midsection of the country while cooler
air expands further into the West Coast and the Northeast...

A deepening low-pressure system over the Canadian Maritimes
continues to bring a cool air mass farther southward into the
eastern U.S. Showers and thunderstorms triggered near and along
the leading edge of this cool air mass have gradually shifted
southward, with the main focus across the Southeast to the eastern
Gulf Coast region for today into tonight. The Storm Prediction
Center is highlighting a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for
portions of the Southeast. Behind the front, the cool air will
break the recent spell of heat in the eastern U.S. with high
temperatures reaching only into the mid-70s to low 80s for the
next couple of afternoons. Morning lows dropping into the 40s and
50s will bring a first taste of Fall across New England.

As the heat dome remains anchored over the country's midsection, a
deep upper-level low continues to edge farther inland across the
western U.S. A band of heavy rainfall could set up across Utah
today near a slow-moving front. Urban areas, as well as dry washes
and burn scars will be most vulnerable to flooding. Over the next
couple of days, a low-pressure system is forecast to gradually
consolidate across the northern High Plains as the deep upper low
edges toward the northern Rockies. This pattern will lead to
increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms across the
northern Rockies to the northern Plains over the next couple of
days. The developing storm will interact with anomalous moisture
to yield an expansive shield of moderate to locally heavy rain on
the northern flank of the low over portions of the northern
Rockies. WPC is highlighting northwestern Montana for a slight
risk of excessive rainfall on Labor Day. East of the wrap-around
rainfall, an approaching Pacific cold front could drive strong
thunderstorms across the northern Plains, spreading eastward into
the upper Midwest, and southward into the central Plains ahead of
the trailing cold front on Tuesday as the maturing cyclone drifts
across the Canadian Prairie.

Temperatures beneath the upper-low will be cool across the West
this weekend into the new week as daytime highs dip 10 to 20
degrees below normal. In fact, below-freezing morning temperatures
are expected across the higher elevations as far south as northern
California and the Sierra Nevada peaks. Meanwhile, oppressive heat
will continue through Labor Day in the Nation's Heartland with the
unrelenting upper-level ridge over the nation's midsection. Heat
indices of 105 to 110 degrees and record warm overnight
temperatures will be widespread across the Central/Southern Plains
States and Mississippi Valley through the rest of Labor Day
weekend and into next week. See WPC's Key Messages for more
information on the heat, limit afternoon outdoor activity if
possible, and stay hydrated regardless of your Labor Day plans.


Kong/Asherman


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/LatestKeyMessage_1.png