Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
248 PM EST Sun Mar 01 2026

Valid 00Z Mon Mar 02 2026 - 00Z Wed Mar 04 2026

...A lifting frontal boundary will bring a swath of precipitation
from the central to eastern U.S. the next couple of days as a
wintry mix to the north gradually transitions to more widespread
shower and thunderstorm chances...

...Lower elevation showers and thunderstorms and higher elevation
snow expected from the Paciifc Northwest to the central Rockies
through Monday...

...Record warmth across the Southwest to southern Plains continues
while Arctic air filters southward across the northern tier behind
a strong cold front...

Energetic upper-flow over a wavy frontal boundary will lead to
widespread precipitation chances from the central to eastern U.S.
over the next few days. Showers and some thunderstorms are
expected to focus along the boundary while a wintry mix is
expected to the north as warm moist air overruns colder air at the
surface. For the rest of Sunday, showers and storms will focus
from portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid-South
while a mix of some freezing rain and snow is expected through the
Lower Missouri Valley tonight. Precipitation chances will shift
eastward through the overnight hours and into the day Monday from
the Middle Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley and central
Appalachians, with rain once again for locations further south and
a wintry mix more likely to the north. By Monday evening, a
greater surge of warm, moist air will lead to another round of
precipitation as the front begins to lift northward. The
potentially most impactful precipitation will be across portions
of the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic late Monday into
Tuesday morning where freezing rain is expected on the northern
side of the front. Some ice accretions are forecast, especially
along the eastern side of the central Appalachians. This wintry
mix will lift northward into New England through the day Tuesday,
with some light ice accretions and snow accumulations possible.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are also expected into the
day Tuesday along the lifting front from the central Plains
eastward through the Midwest and into the Mid-Atlantic as areas
previously seeing wintry precipitation transition to all rain.
Some more moderate to locally heavy rain will be possible
particularly from the Middle Missouri Valley east into the
northern Ohio Valley and nearing the Great Lakes into Tuesday
night, with an isolated minor flood risk.

An upper-trough moving into the western U.S. will continue to lead
to lower elevation showers and thunderstorms from northern
California and the southern Pacific Northwest east into the Great
Basin today and into Monday. Precipitation chances will gradually
decrease from west to east throughout the day Monday with most
areas clearing out by Tuesday morning. Some light to moderate snow
is also expected for the higher elevations of the regional
mountain ranges of the Great Basin as well as into portions of the
northern/central Rockies. Another system will approach the Pacific
Northwest on Tuesday with increasing chances for lower
elevation/coastal rain and higher elevation snow. Elsewhere, daily
thunderstorms are forecast for South Florida as a weakening
frontal boundary lingers nearby.

Record-breaking warmth has kicked off the month of March and
meteorological spring across the Southwest today as well above
average high temperatures soar into the mid-90s, with highs into
the 80s reaching into the southern Plains and lower Mississippi
Valley. While the summer-like warmth wanes across the Southwest
early this week, above average temperatures are expected to become
more widespread across the Great Plains and Ohio/Mississippi
Valley by Tuesday. Additionally, numerous daily record highs are
forecast across the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley
on Tuesday as high temperatures rise into the mid-to-upper 80s.
Conversely, below average temperatures and arctic cold are
forecast to be located north of the aforementioned cold front
through Monday across the northern Plains, Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes, and Northeast. Here, high temperatures are forecast to
struggle to rise out of the teens during the daytime hours, with
low temperatures dipping below zero for some locations.
Fortunately, this arctic blast is expected to be short-lived as
temperatures return to near-average values by Wednesday.

Putnam/Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php