Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Valid 12Z Sun Aug 16 2026 - 12Z Tue Aug 18 2026

...Severe thunderstorm, heavy rainfall, and flash flooding threats
continue from the Midwest to the central Appalachians and across
the central High Plains...

...Dangerous heat persists in the South and Southeast...

While a strong high-pressure system remains dominant across the
southern tier states to sustain the ongoing heatwave, a
low-pressure wave moving through the Great Lakes today will
gradually push the slow-moving front farther east across the
east-central U.S., bringing a break to the repeated rounds of
heavy rain and thunderstorms across the region by Monday.  In the
meantime, the corridor of unsettled weather will continue from the
Midwest to the central Appalachians, with additional rounds of
strong to severe thunderstorms today through tonight falling over
the same general region of recent heavy rainfall. The highest
flash flood risk is forecast around West Virginia where a Moderate
Risk (level 3/4) of Excessive Rainfall Probability is in place. In
addition, some of the strong to severe thunderstorms will likely
move across the Appalachians to reach the Mid-Atlantic and could
produce locally heavy rain and scattered instances of flash
flooding.

Unsettled weather is also expected across the High Plains through
the remainder of the  weekend as a cold front pushes south into
the region, with the tail end of the front stalling up against the
Rocky Mountains. Upper level shortwaves moving north along the
western edge of a ridge anchored over the Gulf Coast will interact
with the frontal boundary and create a threat of scattered severe
thunderstorms over the central High Plains. Storms will be capable
of producing heavy rainfall that could lead to scattered instances
of flash flooding, especially in vulnerable areas near steep
terrain, burn scars, slot canyons, and urbanized areas.

On Monday, high pressure building in the wake of a cold front will
bring drier air through the Great Lakes towards New England and
the East Coast.  Meanwhile, another cold front will drop into the
north-central U.S., resulting in increasing precipitation chances
for the region on Monday.

The upper-level high pressure anchored over the Gulf Coast will
continue to sustain dangerous heat over the South and Southeast
through the upcoming week. Afternoon highs are expected to reach
the upper 90s to mid-100s, and overnight lows will remain
relatively warm, providing only minor relief from the heat. With
the combination of high humidity, heat indices may reach up to 115
degrees, resulting in widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk levels.
Several consecutive days of high heat stress can lead to
heat-related illness.


Kong/Dolan


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php