Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
134 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Valid 00Z Tue Apr 14 2026 - 00Z Thu Apr 16 2026

...Rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms possible with heavy
rain across the Southern/Central Plains during the next couple of
days...

...A couple of rounds of severe thunderstorms possible with heavy
rain across the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes tonight and
tomorrow...

...Unsettled weather today in California and the northern
Intermountains will shift focus to the Four Corners and Pacific
Northwest Tuesday into early Wednesday...

...Critical fire weather risk over the central to Southern High
Plains...

A frontal boundary extending across the northern tier states is
forecast to undulate through the next couple days.  As low
pressure waves form along the front this afternoon, our forecast
remains on track for a corridor of severe weather and heavy
rainfall to develop across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
region tonight into Tuesday morning. All modes of severe weather
appear possible with the activity tonight, which also will support
scattered flash flooding as cells overlap with an area of
saturated soils from recent heavy rainfall. A lull in the
thunderstorm activity is expected during the day on Tuesday before
another round of strong to severe thunderstorms with heavy rain
returns later on Tuesday across the Midwest/upper Midwest and into
the southern half of the Great Lakes into early Wednesday morning.
 The interior Northeast will also see a couple of rounds of
showers and thunderstorms. The first round is expected today ahead
of a warm front followed by a cold front. The next round should
bring a higher risk of isolated severe thunderstorms Tuesday night
ahead of the next low pressure wave. Further south in the
Central/Southern Plains, a well-defined dryline will also yield
daily chances of severe thunderstorms and isolated heavy rainfall
this week. The same culprit driving the influx of moist and
unstable air into the Heartland (Bermuda High) will also usher in
anomalous warmth into the Eastern U.S. High temperatures well into
the 80s will begin to challenge daily records in the east-central
U.S. beginning Tuesday afternoon.

West of the Continental Divide, the recent round of heavy mountain
snow and low-elevation rain across California will begin to taper
off today as a low pressure system moves farther inland and
weakens.  The northern Intermountain region will get a round of
high-elevation snow and lower-elevation rain today as the northern
edge of the low pressure system interacts with a front arriving
from Canada.  Unsettled weather will then shift focus to the Four
Corners on Tuesday as the upper low/trough penetrates farther
inland, while a separate round of rain and high-elevation snow
arrives in the Pacific Northwest ahead of another system.

As the warm air expands eastward from the Plains to the Eastern
U.S. over the next couple of days, a cooling trend will gradually
work its way across the Western U.S. with the ongoing unsettled
weather. West of the aforementioned dryline, a combination warm
temperatures, dry air and some gusty winds will promote a Critical
Risk of fire weather over the Central to Southern High Plains and
nearby Southern Rockies over the next couple of days.

Asherman/Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php