Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Valid 00Z Mon Jul 27 2026 - 00Z Wed Jul 29 2026

...Dangerous heat wave continues over parts of central and
southern U.S. into next week...

...Risk for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding will spread
from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes and Northeast over the
next few days...

...Active monsoonal moisture fuels thunderstorms over the Four
Corners Region, Rockies, and High Plains...

An expanding, dangerous heat wave continues for the central and
southern U.S. as a strong/broad upper-ridge remains in place. High
temperatures of 95-105 and high humidity will lead to oppressive
heat indices in the 105-115 degree range. For the Desert
Southwest, high temperatures will reach upwards of 115-120. This
will lead to HeatRisk levels in the Major to Extreme range (levels
3 and 4 of 4) indicating a level of heat dangerous to anyone
without adequate cooling or hydration. Some daily record high
temperatures will be possible. An embedded wave in the ridge as
well as monsoonal moisture leading to greater thunderstorm chances
may bring some local relief across the central Plains by Tuesday.
Another wave will bring a backdoor cold front and relief to much
of the Midwest on Tuesday as well. Conditions will be around to
below average and more mild across the Northeast, with highs in
the 70s and 80s, as well as the Pacific Northwest, with highs in
the 60s and 70s.

Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected over the next
few days across much of the eastern U.S. as embedded shortwave
energies round the western/central U.S. ridge and through an
upper-trough along the East Coast. For the rest of today, the
heaviest rainfall is forecast with clustering storms along a
quasi-stationary frontal boundary through coastal South
Carolina/Georgia. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4)
is in effect for the threat of some scattered instances of flash
flooding, though this threat should wane into the evening hours.
More isolated instances of flash flooding are expected with some
more organized storms in northwest flow through the Upper Midwest
into the Ohio Valley. Severe weather will also be possible with
these storms with the Storm Prediction Center including an
Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) covering Wisconsin for the threat of
significant damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes, with
a broader Slight Risk for more isolated threats elsewhere.
Additional isolated flash flooding will be possible with an
embedded wave through central Virginia/North Carolina, and along
the Atlantic Coast of Florida. For Monday, the storm threat shifts
into the Great Lakes region/Upper Ohio Valley. More
clustering/organized storms will bring a severe weather threat,
with a Slight Risk in place mainly for damaging winds, as well as
some large hail and perhaps a tornado. Isolated flash flooding
will also remain a concern. Then, on Tuesday, another embedded
wave will help to reinforce and advance the lingering
quasi-stationary frontal system towards the East Coast. Enhanced
moist southerly flow off the Atlantic will lead to widespread
storms capable of moderate to heavy rainfall through much of the
Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, and southern New England. There is a
Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall for portions of the northern
Mid-Atlantic/southern New England where the most favorable
combination of anomalous moisture and enhanced lift with lead to
the potential for locally higher totals of several inches and
scattered to potentially widespread/significant instances of flash
flooding. Additional isolated instances of flash flooding can be
expected elsewhere. Another severe weather threat is also expected
with the SPC highlighting portions of the central/southern
Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas in a Slight Risk for some large hail
and damaging winds.   

Meanwhile, monsoonal moisture will continue to bring daily
thunderstorm chances to the Four Corners region as well as
portions of the Rockies and High Plains. Locally heavy downpours
will bring a threat of isolated flash flooding each day,
particularly for urban areas and any burn scars. Elsewhere, daily
thunderstorms remain in the forecast for Florida as well as the
Gulf Coast, with some showers also possible in the Pacific
Northwest. Wildfires remain a concern from the northern Sierra
into the Great Basin and northern Rockies today with Elevated to
Critical Fire Weather threats (levels 1 and 2 of 3) for the region
from SPC. An Elevated Risk is continued into Monday for portions
of the northern Great Basin.


Putnam

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php