Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
704 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019

Valid 00Z Mon Oct 21 2019 - 00Z Wed Oct 23 2019

...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Southern Plains...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southern Plains...

...Critical fire weather conditions across portions of the
Southern High Plains and Southern California...
  
A low pressure system over the Northern Plains will deepen and
move northeastward to Lake Superior by Tuesday evening.  The
associated front will move from the central/southern Plains
eastward to the Appalachians and the eastern Gulf Coast by
Tuesday.  The system will produce rain over parts of the
northern/central Plains and the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley on
Sunday night into Monday morning.  The rain moves into the Upper
Great Lakes on Monday afternoon into Tuesday while lingering over
portions of the Upper Midwest.  On the northwest side of the
precipitation shield, wet snow may develop overnight Monday into
Tuesday morning.  Overnight Sunday, showers and thunderstorms will
likely develop along and ahead of the front over parts of the
southern Plains and the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley.  Severe
thunderstorms are possible over this area, with frequent
lightning, damaging winds, large hail, and possible tornadoes. 
The heavy rain associated with these thunderstorms may produce
some instances of flash flooding.  On the backside of the storm,
the system will produce higher elevation snow and valley rain over
the northern Rockies through late Sunday night. 

Critical fire weather conditions are in place across the southern
High Plains and southern California.  Gusty winds and low humidity
will lead to a higher risk of wildfires, and red flag Warnings are
in effect.  Elsewhere, moist onshore flow off the Pacific will aid
in producing rain and high elevation snow over the Pacific
Northwest and snow over parts of the Northern Rockies from Sunday
evening into Tuesday.  

Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php