Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
220 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

Valid 00Z Fri May 24 2019 - 00Z Sun May 26 2019

...More widespread severe weather and flash flooding is expected
for portions of the central and southern Plains along with the
Midwest...

...Near record heat and dry weather is expected across the
Southeast U.S....

...Very cool and unsettled weather continues for the West...

A very active weather pattern is forecast to continue across the
central part of the nation through the end of the week and the
first part of the weekend. This is in response to a strong upper
level trough situated over the Intermountain West and a large
upper level ridge anchored over the southeastern U.S. A clash of
air masses from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley region will
support multiple episodes of severe weather along with the threat
for additional flash flooding in the general vicinity of a slow
moving frontal boundary where multiple waves of low pressure will
be developing along it.

The first of these surface lows will cross the Great Lakes region
through this afternoon and advance across New England early
Friday. This will allow a cold front to drop southeast and cross
the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and New England tonight through
Friday morning, and bringing cooler temperatures for the end of
the week and going into the first part of the weekend. In the warm
sector of this approaching low center and cold front, severe
thunderstorms will be possible from the Ohio Valley to the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through this afternoon and evening, and
the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted portions of this
region in a Slight to Enhanced Risk of severe weather. Some
locally heavy rainfall will be possible as well, but conditions
will improve rapidly after the cold front crosses the region.

A second low pressure system will develop across the western High
Plains tonight and lift northeastward across the northern Plains
and upper Midwest by Friday evening. A corridor of enhanced
rainfall along with severe weather is likely from the Texas
Panhandle to Wisconsin over the next couple of days. The Storm
Prediction Center currently has a Moderate Risk of severe weather
for this afternoon and evening focused across the Texas panhandle
which is embedded within a broader Enhanced Risk area over
portions of the southern and central High Plains. Flash flooding
will be a significant concern tonight across areas central and
southern Kansas where the Weather Prediction Center has
highlighted a High Risk of excessive rainfall and this is embedded
within a broader Moderate Risk areas across the greater central
Plains. On Friday and going into Saturday, the threat for severe
weather and flash flooding will shift farther northeast toward the
upper Midwest as the aforementioned low center lifts off to the
northeast.

In terms of temperatures, readings will continue to be well below
average for the Rockies and extending westward across the Great
Basin and into California given the presence of an upper level
trough, cloud cover and plenty of shower activity. In some cases,
temperatures will be as much as 10 to 20 degrees below normal, and
it will be cold enough across the higher terrain for some
additional accumulating snowfall. Meanwhile, across portions of
the Tennessee Valley, the Deep South and the Southeast, very dry
conditions and near record high temperatures will be possible
Friday and well into the Memorial Day weekend as high pressure
overhead will yield high temperatures soaring well into the 90s to
locally near 100 degrees.

Orrison

Graphics available at
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php