Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Thu Jun 01 2023

Valid 12Z Thu Jun 01 2023 - 12Z Sat Jun 03 2023

...Scattered showers and thunderstorms with the potential for
isolated flash flooding and severe weather continue from the
Plains to Intermountain West...

...Area of low pressure in the Gulf to bring increasing chance of
thunderstorms to Florida the next few days...

...Much above average, record tying/breaking warmth from the
Northeast to the Great Lakes to end the week...

A blocky weather pattern continues across the CONUS heading into
June. Upper troughing remains present across the western U.S.
leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms over much of the
central/western U.S.  Meanwhile, a trough moving into the Gulf of
Mexico and another trough/closed low off the Mid-Atlantic coast
will remain blocked by an upper-level closed high over the
northeastern U.S., which is forecast to expand to the west into
the Great Lakes over the next couple of days.  This pattern is
manifested with a north-south temperature reversal at the surface,
with much above normal temperatures across the northern tier
states in contrast with cooler than normal conditions across the
southern tier and along the West and East Coasts.

A couple of upper-level troughs/lows moving into/across the
western U.S. will focus two main areas of moderate to heavy
rainfall as we head into the first weekend of June.  An upper low
currently crossing the Southwest will help destabilize the
atmosphere over the very moist, southeasterly low-level flow over
the southern High Plains for the next couple of days.  The highest
chance of seeing heavy rain and severe weather will be across the
Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma.  A few more organized,
supercell storms could produce large hail and gusty winds together
with heavy rain capable of triggering flash flooding today and
again on Friday with activities most active during the late
afternoon into the evening hours.  Meanwhile, an upper-level
trough edging into the Pacific Northwest will focus a second area
of moderate to heavy rainfall across central Montana where a
couple of fronts are forecast to interact with a surface low
pressure systems.

Over the Gulf of Mexico, the National Hurricane Center continues
to watch a developing low pressure system for signs of tropical
cyclone development.  Models generally agree that the core of the
system will stay at a distance off to the west of Florida through
Saturday morning.  Regardless of tropical development, this system
will likely bring an increasing chance for showers and
thunderstorms over portions of the central and southern Florida
Peninsula. 

High temperatures will continue to trend 15-25 degrees above
average from the Northeast to the Great Lakes and Northern Plains
as upper-level ridging hovers over the region. Highs will be in
the upper 80s to low 90s, which may come close to tying/breaking a
few daily records both Thursday and Friday.  A back-door cold
front will then push southward from Canada into New England later
on Friday, bringing a surge of cool and damp air into the region
along with an expanding area of showers and embedded thunderstorms
across New York and central New England into Saturday morning. 
Above normal conditions will extend south into the
Tennessee/Ohio/Mississippi Valleys between the southeastern and
western troughs, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.  Across
the West, high temperatures through Friday will be around average
for northern portions of the Pacific Northwest, with forecast
highs in the 70s and 80s.  Highs will be much below average along
the California Coast, with mostly 60s expected, as well as into
the Southwest with 80s to low 90s forecast.

Kong/Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php