The Weather Prediction Center

Short Range Forecast Discussion

[Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product]
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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
401 PM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018

Valid 00Z Tue Jul 17 2018 - 00Z Thu Jul 19 2018

...Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding possible across parts
of the Northeast, the Deep South, and the Plains...

...Monsoonal moisture to continue across the Southwest with heavy
to excessive rainfall possible

...Well above normal temperatures to continue through Tuesday
across parts of the Western US...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue along and ahead of a
frontal boundary as it shifts eastward from the Ohio Valley into
the Eastern U.S. by tomorrow. Some of these storms may be capable
of producing severe weather and/or heavy to excessive rainfall,
particularly across portions of the northeast and the Deep South.
SPC has highlighted portions of the northeast within a marginal to
slight risk for severe thunderstorms, while WPC has much of the
area along the front from the Northeast to the Deep South within a
marginal to slight risk for excessive rainfall. Out west, moisture
associated with upper level energy moving through the northern
Rockies this evening into the northern Plains tomorrow will
interact with a surface boundary draped across the high Plains to
produce showers and thunderstorms from the northern High Plains to
the central Plains. Again, both SPC and WPC have marginal to
slight risks for this region for severe weather and flash
flooding, respectively, this evening as well as on Tuesday. In the
Southwest, expect monsoonal moisture to continue through the short
range period resulting in mainly diurnally driven showers and
storms, with heavy to excessive rainfall possible. See the
graphics and discussions from these two centers for additional
details on the severe weather and heavy rainfall risks across the

Temperature wise, portions of the western U.S. will have to endure
another day of sweltering heat, with afternoon highs approaching
or exceeding 100 degrees possible. This is as much as 10 to 15
degrees above normal with many locations from northern California
to central Washington under heat advisories or excessive heat
warnings. Conditions are also dry out west which increases fire
weather concerns. A few red flag warnings are also in effect
across northeast Nevada.  


Graphics available at

Last Updated: 401 PM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018