Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
322 AM EDT Wed May 06 2026

Valid 12Z Wed May 06 2026 - 12Z Fri May 08 2026

...Heavy snowfall to continue in the Rockies through Wednesday
night...

...Strong to severe thunderstorms to impact the Southern Plains
and Lower Mississippi Valley today as a cold front continues
southeastward...

...A frontal system is expected to form in the Northern Plains and
Rockies, bringing increased precipitation chances to end the
week...

A significant late-season winter storm is underway in the Rockies,
with heavy snowfall expected to continue through tonight. Chances
of at least minor impacts remain very high, at over 90%, per the
latest Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI-P).
Snowfall total accumulations in the range of 4 to 10 inches are
expected across much of the I-25 corridor, while mountainous
regions, including the northern Front Range and foothills, could
see as much as 24 to 30 inches. Snowfall is expected to remain
very wet, dense, and heavy, which could lead to tree and power
line damage. Beginning tonight, a widespread and hard freeze is
expected as the snowfall begins to wind down. Travel impacts are
likely across much of the area, especially in higher elevations
where snowy and slushy roads are possible. Additionally, exercise
caution while shoveling; the wet, heavy nature of the snow may
increase the risk of overexertion and injury.

Further east, thunderstorms will continue throughout the day for
much of the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains, with
coverage expanding into the Southeast today. An amplified
upper-level trough will support a strong upper-level jet extending
through the region. An associated surface cold front will continue
moving southward, stretching from the Southern Plains into the
Gulf Coast and Mid-Atlantic. Ongoing thunderstorms will persist
through the morning across the Lower Mississippi Valley, with more
intense development expected in the afternoon. Thunderstorms have
the potential to be strong to severe, bringing risks of strong
winds, large hail, and an increased possibility of tornadoes. As
such, the Storm Prediction Center has outlined an Enhanced Risk
(level 3/5) of severe weather for this region today. In addition,
storms will have the potential to bring heavy rainfall with rates
of 1–2 inches per hour. Consequently, there is a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of excessive rainfall today for the same region. On
Thursday, the front will continue sagging further into the
Southeast. While moisture availability and low-level flow will
weaken, strong thunderstorms with damaging winds and a brief
tornado remain possible in parts of the Southeast.

On Thursday, a new surface low-pressure system is forecast to
develop over the Northern Plains and Rockies as a mid-level
shortwave trough enters the region. This will bring chances for
showers and thunderstorms to the Northern Plains beginning
Thursday morning and continuing into the evening. High-elevation
locations in the Northern Rockies could see precipitation in the
form of snow or a wintry mix during this time.

Below-average temperatures will continue expanding into the South
as the cold front progresses. Highs in parts of the Central
Rockies may struggle to leave the 40s today, while much of the
Plains and the Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys will dip
into the 60s. Following a brief warm-up in the Northeast and
Mid-Atlantic, another cooldown is expected behind the cold front,
with temperatures returning to the upper 50s and mid-60s.
Above-average temperatures will resume in the Southwest today and
continue for the next few days, while the Northwest remains
unseasonably warm through the remainder of the period.


Blanco-Alcala


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php