Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 414 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 00Z Fri Jul 11 2025 - 00Z Sun Jul 13 2025 ...Strong storms and heavy rainfall to impact parts of Iowa eastward to southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois tonight into Friday... ...Areas around Colorado, New Mexico, and the southern Plains will have to watch for flash flooding potential along a cold front moving into the region on Saturday... ...Heat out West will build over the next couple of days, bringing hazardous heat risks to Pacific residents... Through this evening and into Friday afternoon, a shortwave trough and approaching cold front will provide synoptic forcing for sever weather and heavy rain across the upper Midwest, particularly from Iowa to points around Chicago. Clusters of storms could organize and contain high rainfall rates. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is active for areas mentioned above for the rest of today and will continue tomorrow as storms re-fire in similar areas. 2-3 inches of rainfall could be observed, locally heavier amounts are certainly possible, for locales in the Midwest. Chicago will be a sensitive urban area to watch for flooding impacts. As for severe weather, the Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for severe weather from Missouri to southern Michigan on Friday. Ample instability and moderate wind shear will support the potential for storms to contain hail and then transition to a straight line wind threat as storms congeal, according to SPC. A tornado or two is also possible. The east coast will see summer thunderstorms with a unstable and humid air mass. Some thunderstorms could be locally strong Friday across the Southeast as wet down-burst potential brings the threat of gusty winds. Some low lying areas could see ponding as rainfall rates will be high with pulse afternoon convection. Friday and Saturday will see a cold front move southward across the Plains and begin to slow down across the southern Plains and areas around Colorado and New Mexico. Storms may organize and bring strong, gusty winds. Additionally, the front will be slowing down and providing lift for heavy rainfall potential. A Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall is forecast for Oklahoma, Texas, and across the front range of Colorado and New Mexico on Saturday. The other big weather story will be the heat building across the West. The Desert Southwest should begin to break from the excessive heat, but temperatures will remain above average still and very hot with temperatures around 110 F likely. The California Valleys will be entering the 100s over the weekend and Heat Advisories are in effect. Into northern California and southern Oregon, temperatures will be feeling over 100. This has prompted an extreme Heat Watch. Another hot spot will be interior Washington and Oregon as highs will be in the upper 90s and may eclipse 100 by Saturday and Sunday.Stay hydrated and take cool breaks in the afternoon. Wilder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php