Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
557 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

Day 1
Valid 01Z Tue Feb 10 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 10 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Roth/Otto


Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Feb 10 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 11 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

...Transverse Range of Southern California...
The 09/00Z suite of global and ensemble guidance still suggests
that a modest atmospheric river associated with a Pacific cold
front advancing inland across central and southern CA later on
Tuesday night has the potential to bring several inches of rain to
portions of the Transverse Range. The latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF
still suggest rather modest IVT magnitudes of 300 to 500 kg/m/s
which looks to be become oriented orthogonal to the Transverse
Range. This may foster some heavier orographically focused rainfall
during the latter part of the period. Deterministic guidance
suggests as much as 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, but the upslope flow
into the terrain coupled with the front may support isolated
heavier totals closer to 3 inches. Held off on introducing a
Marginal Risk area for now but an upgrade may still be
needed...especially given some of the runoff sensitivities with
burn scars and the sloped terrain.

Bann


Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Feb 11 2026 - 12Z Thu Feb 12 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

With the plume of moisture propagating eastward fairly quickly and
away from areas which received rain on Tuesday...no need to
introduce a Marginal risk area at this time.

Bann


Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt