Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
318 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 22 2025 - 12Z Sun Nov 23 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Nov 23 2025 - 12Z Mon Nov 24 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

The latest guidance continues to depict a southwest-northeast 
orientated axis of heavy rain panning from the northern part of the
Hill Country to northeast Texas. General consensus suggests 1 to 3
inches however, the ECMWF is persistent on the higher end with
amounts 3 to 5+ inches and placed further south/southwest than 
other solutions. This is somewhat concerning, as this brings the 
forecast axis of QPF even more into alignment with areas that 
realized heavy rainfall in prior days. 

A Slight Risk remains in effect and seems appropriate given at
least three days of recovery from the previous heavy rainfall
event and uncertainty with regard to the amount of training and 
resultant QPF.

Campbell/Churchill


Day 3 Valid 12Z Mon Nov 24 2025 - 12Z Tue Nov 25 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR NORTHEAST
TEXAS, NORTHERN LOUISIANA, SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, ARKANSAS AND
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

The broad area of showers and thunderstorms are expected to shift
to the eastern portion of the Southern Plains and the Lower
Mississippi Valley. The highest amounts are expected to focus over
the AK-LA-TX region. While areal averages of 1 to 3 inches are
forecast, isolated maximums of 4+ inches will be possible. There
will be some overlap of heavy rainfall from the previous day which
will lower local FFGs. Training and back building of storms may be
possible, particularly for norther Texas and Arkansas. A Slight 
Risk is in effect from northeast Texas/northern Louisiana to 
western Tennessee/northwest Mississippi.

Campbell


Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt