Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
245 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Day 1
Valid 12Z Mon Nov 24 2025 - 12Z Tue Nov 25 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND INTO ADJACENT 
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA, NORTHERN LOUISIANA, AND 
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

A SW-NE axis of thunderstorms setup overnight allowing training 
over central Texas. Storms are expected to linger over parts of
central Texas at the start of the D1 period while ramping up over
northeast Texas and adjacent areas as the upper trough/low 
advances eastward. Localized accumulations of around 3-4" being 
near or just above FFGs across northern portions of the Slight and
at or below FFGs across southern portions of the Slight. Guidance
continues to suggest the highest totals will focus near the 
Arkansas and Louisiana border and over northeast Texas. A broad 
Marginal Risk spans from central Texas to western portions of 
Tennessee and northwest Alabama.

Campbell


Day 2 Valid 12Z Tue Nov 25 2025 - 12Z Wed Nov 26 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST, TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

The low pressure system will continue advancing through the Gulf
states and into the Southeast/Carolinas. The latest guidance 
continues to depict localized totals as high as 2-3" especially
near the higher terrain of the region. Should these occur over a 
short enough period (or exceed 3"+ in areas farther south) than 
isolated instances of flash flooding are possible. A Marginal Risk
remains in effect from eastern Mississippi to extreme southwest 
Virginia and western North and South Carolina.

Churchill


Campbell


Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Nov 26 2025 - 12Z Thu Nov 27 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON...

An atmospheric river directed toward the Pacific Northwest will
advect copious moisture towards the terrain, with some 2 to 3 inch
rainfall totals likely. This will increase the threat for runoff
and localized flash flooding therefore a Marginal Risk is in 
effect.

Campbell


Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt