Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 430 AM EDT Tue Oct 03 2023 Day 2 Valid 12Z Wed Oct 04 2023 - 12Z Thu Oct 05 2023 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...Southern Plains and Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley There continues to be reasonably high confidence of an excessive rainfall event unfolding across eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas and northeastern Texas on Wednesday. Embedded shortwave energy within an amplified upper trough will provide ample forcing for waves of convection to propagate across Oklahoma and north Texas beginning tonight and continuing on Wednesday. Plenty divergence aloft and sufficient low level jet support will promote forcing for heavy rainfall. Instability between 500-1000J/Kg and PWATs between 1.75-2.25" should support rain rates of over 1.5" with locally higher amounts. We're expecting between 3-5" of 24hr QPF for much of the slight risk area with locally higher amounts possible. An upgrade could be possible if things like the ensemble means (GEFS and ECE) come into better agreement with respect to the axis of heaviest precip. The GEFS favors a more northerly solution while the ECE is farther to the south. 24hr exceedance probabilities of over 2" remain high though for both ensemble means. Some heavy rainfall may also develop over parts of Texas' central Gulf Coast where they're expected to receive some antecedent heavy rain today, which will make their soils vulnerable to runoff. Kebede Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt