Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 436 AM EDT Fri May 9 2025 Day 2 Valid 12Z Sat May 10 2025 - 12Z Sun May 11 2025 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST & NEW ENGLAND... ...Southeast... A stationary boundary will remain draped across the Southeast, with several waves of low pressure expected to form along the boundary over the weekend as upper level short waves pivot around the upper low over the region. Compared to Friday, the QPF footprint will translate east into areas with relatively drier antecedent conditions. Models are agreeable that widespread rainfall totals of 1-2 inches are expected across southern and central Alabama and Georgia and North Florida. Locally higher amounts above 2 inches will also be possible, but exactly where may vary within the region. The highest QPF will likely be along the immediate coast in the Florida panhandle as convection moves onshore, and training onshore convection will likely pose the highest threat for flash flooding. Efficient rain rates (2+ inches per hour) are expected due to a saturated atmosphere with ample CAPE and shear to support thunderstorms. Flash flooding may be fairly limited to urban and poor drainage areas given the higher FFGs (3-5 inches). To account for this, a Marginal Risk area is in place across much of the Southeast. ...New England... As a coastal low tracks south of the coast, moderate precipitation will focus over New England on the northern side of the system. The low is expected to be fairly progressive, which might help to limit rainfall totals, but a decent swatch of rainfall is forecast from Vermont and New Hampshire through southern Maine. Soils in Vermont and New Hampshire are expected to be somewhat sensitive given heavy rains expected today. Rainfall will be mostly stratiform across New England, limiting rain rates, but there will likely be enough moisture and instability to produce localized rates of 1+ inches over the course of a few hours, which may come close to 3/6 hr FFGs. A Marginal Risk area remains in place across Vermont, New Hampshire, and most of Maine, but northwestern Maine was removed from the Marginal as model QPF has trended downwards. Dolan Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt